TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Patrik Sturma vs Lukas Zustina 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Patrik Sturma
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1168117111012––
Lukas Zustina
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:30 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePatrik Sturma to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPatrik Sturma above · Lukas Zustina below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 76 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Patrik Sturma at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Sturma 2–3 Lukas Zustina Patrik Sturma has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 23:30What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Zustina
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sturma 1293 vs Zustina 1282
Sturma
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sturma 40% vs Zustina 20%
Sturma
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sturma 30% vs Zustina 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sturma -1 · Zustina +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sturma)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zustina form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSturma 1.91 / Zustina 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sturma)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #13186735
Sturma1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 119 of 245
Down 0–1, comes back40% 49 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 42
Zustina1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite32% won 11 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it47% 7 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSturma2wins
AwayZustina3wins
2 of 5 to a deciderZustina leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSturma33.3%1 of 3
AwayZustinan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sturma3Zustina2n = 5Sturma took 3 of 5
S2Sturma2Zustina3n = 5Zustina took 3 of 5
S3Sturma1Zustina4n = 5Zustina took 4 of 5
S4Sturma2Zustina1n = 3Sturma took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricSturmaZustinaS − ZBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match36.837.0−0.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSturmaZustinaBasisWin rate · lifetime426 / 877 vs 51 / 11248.6%45.5%426 / 877 vs 51 / 112Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.436.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SturmaSturma 1.91/Zustina 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Sturma · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zustina won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 4 · 12:48P. Sturma216870L. Zustina331111113
WAug 4 · 11:45P. Sturma331111113L. Zustina208660
WMar 4 · 08:10P. Sturma50811911113L. Zustina4511911772
LFeb 25 · 12:10P. Sturma43113101182L. Zustina48511129113
LFeb 18 · 12:40P. Sturma37119981L. Zustina3961111113
P. Sturma10
WSep 24 · 12:48P. Sturma1.4491311113R. Sedivy2.631111761LSep 24 · 10:45P. Sturma1.671530Z. Chovancik2.101111113WSep 24 · 09:45P. Sturma1.7371111113R. Sedivy2.00117991LSep 19 · 16:36J. Jnr1.361111113P. Sturma3.007880LSep 19 · 16:10P. Sturma3.0046100P. Chvojka1.361111123WSep 19 · 14:40I. Jemelka1.8012111041P. Sturma1.9114412113LSep 19 · 14:10J. Jnr2.2071411113P. Sturma1.611112891LSep 19 · 12:40F. Mandrysz2.00611139113P. Sturma1.73115111192LSep 19 · 12:10P. Sturma1.91119691F. Mandrysz1.8091111113LSep 19 · 10:40J. Sindler1.731511133P. Sturma2.00137110
L. Zustina10
WSep 24 · 11:15R. Sedivy3.004830L. Zustina1.361111113LSep 24 · 10:15L. Zustina1.8041150Z. Chovancik1.911113113LSep 16 · 12:48L. Jr1.531111113L. Zustina2.388670LSep 16 · 11:45M. Lorenc2.251111113L. Zustina1.577790LSep 16 · 11:15L. Jr1.73111111113L. Zustina2.00139571LSep 16 · 10:15L. Zustina2.25861191J. Sindler1.5711119113LSep 16 · 08:50L. Snr1.571111113L. Zustina2.253770WSep 16 · 07:45L. Zustina2.2511117113J. Sindler1.57791171LSep 16 · 06:45L. Zustina1.834970L. Snr1.831111113LSep 16 · 05:45L. Zustina1.6710770R. Zajac2.101211113
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