TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jan Trefny vs Vladimir Cermak 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 23Finished
Jan Trefny
Home
1.85
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
111411211––––
Vladimir Cermak
Away
1.85
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:32 and never touched — 56.1% is still 56.1%
Graded at full timeJan Trefny to win
56.1%
56.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Trefny above · Vladimir Cermak below
Set 1 · 1-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Point 40 set 3, 2-11 — our read held Jan Trefny at 56.1%
40 points played in total.
H2H Jan Trefny 1–0 Vladimir Cermak Vladimir Cermak has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:32What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Cermak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Trefny 1603 vs Cermak 1572
Trefny
Wrong
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Trefny 80% vs Cermak 60%
Trefny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Trefny 80% vs Cermak 60%
Trefny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Trefny +4 · Cermak +2
Trefny
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Trefny) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Trefny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTrefny 1.85 / Cermak 1.85
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Trefny)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13183024
Trefny1.85
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 20)
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Cermak1.85
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeTrefny1wins
AwayCermak0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderTrefny leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricTrefnyCermakT − CBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match47.039.0+8.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTrefnyCermakBasisWin rate · lifetime63 / 121 vs 550 / 108452.1%50.7%63 / 121 vs 550 / 1084Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.038.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TrefnyTrefny 1.85/Cermak 1.85
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Trefny · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Cermak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WJul 11 · 24:00J. Trefny47581111123V. Cermak39111134102
J. Trefny10
WSep 20 · 03:29J. Trefny2.251111113D. Kouble1.578950WSep 20 · 02:00J. Trefny1.7311411143J. Prokupek2.009117121WSep 20 · 01:00J. Trefny1.9111116113R. Pavelka1.80481141WSep 20 · 24:00P. Budinsky1.61111111482J. Trefny2.20813911113LSep 19 · 22:30D. Kouble1.6711611133J. Trefny2.109115111WSep 19 · 17:32J. Trefny1.6720514113Y. Holovatiuk2.0918111291WSep 19 · 16:00J. Trefny1.801111113Y. Holovatiuk1.917780WSep 19 · 15:30K. Novak2.2559111282J. Trefny1.571111910113WSep 19 · 14:00J. Trefny2.100101111113P. Budinsky1.6711129862LSep 9 · 02:58J. Trefny1.80611791R. Pavelka1.9111411113
V. Cermak10
LSep 23 · 15:00V. Cermak2.1071111192M. Sobisek1.67111175113LSep 23 · 13:30V. Cermak2.1061111992M. Volf1.65119511113WSep 23 · 12:30M. Sobisek1.8011107101V. Cermak1.9181211123WSep 23 · 11:30V. Cermak1.80911911133D. Tuma1.91116119112LSep 23 · 10:30M. Volf1.67115511113V. Cermak2.1091111782LSep 18 · 03:30A. Hlawatschke1.27961116143V. Cermak3.251111814122WSep 18 · 01:30V. Cermak1.6771111113D. Tuma2.10119771WSep 18 · 24:30F. Just2.63116551V. Cermak1.4471111113LSep 17 · 23:30A. Hlawatschke1.441111113V. Cermak2.631690WSep 17 · 22:30V. Cermak1.671111113R. Krejci2.105240
Upcoming Matches
J. Trefny
V. Cermak
Sep 23 · 16:30V. Cermak1.80D. Tuma1.91—Sep 24 · 10:30V. Cermak2.10M. Sobisek1.67—Sep 24 · 11:30V. Cermak1.73P. Zmuda2.00—Sep 24 · 12:30V. Cermak1.80D. Tuma1.91—Sep 24 · 22:00V. Cermak1.44M. Vedmoch2.63—Sep 24 · 23:30V. Cermak1.57F. Just2.25—Sep 25 · 01:00V. Cermak2.38D. Kouble1.53—Sep 25 · 02:30V. Cermak1.80D. Tuma1.91—
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