TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Vladimir Cermak vs Martin Sobisek 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 23Finished
Vladimir Cermak
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711111117115911
Martin Sobisek
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:26 and never touched — 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeMartin Sobisek to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVladimir Cermak above · Martin Sobisek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 1-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 84 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Martin Sobisek at 63.3%
84 points played in total.
H2H Vladimir Cermak 22–35 Martin Sobisek Vladimir Cermak has won 22 of their 57 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Cermak beat Sobisek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:26What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Sobisek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-35 in 57
Sobisek
Correct
gap of 13 in 57, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cermak 1578 vs Sobisek 1570
Cermak
Wrong
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cermak 60% vs Sobisek 40%
Cermak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cermak 60% vs Sobisek 40%
Cermak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cermak +1 · Sobisek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Sobisek) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobisek form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCermak 2.10 / Sobisek 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Sobisek)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13178884
Cermak2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 78 of 185
Down 0–1, comes back25% 27 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 62
Sobisek1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 106 of 170
Up 2–0, closes it97% 60 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it80% 81 of 101
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCermak2wins
AwaySobisek8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSobisek leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCermakn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwaySobisek80%8 of 10
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cermak0Sobisek10n = 10Sobisek took 10 of 10
S2Cermak4Sobisek6n = 10Sobisek took 6 of 10
S3Cermak3Sobisek7n = 10Sobisek took 7 of 10
S4Cermak3Sobisek3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricCermakSobisekC − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set010−10of 10Avg pointsper match31.539.1−7.6per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCermakSobisekBasisWin rate · lifetime551 / 1086 vs 570 / 120950.7%47.2%551 / 1086 vs 570 / 1209Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SobisekCermak 2.10/Sobisek 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.6%
Sobisek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sobisek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 23 · 12:30V. Cermak4381211123M. Sobisek3811107101
WSep 10 · 23:00V. Cermak495111012113M. Sobisek43115121052
LSep 9 · 24:30V. Cermak137420M. Sobisek331111113
LSep 8 · 17:29V. Cermak187650M. Sobisek331111113
LSep 8 · 15:30V. Cermak2275100M. Sobisek341111123
LSep 6 · 22:30V. Cermak36981181M. Sobisek3811115113
LSep 6 · 18:30V. Cermak145450M. Sobisek331111113
LAug 26 · 22:30V. Cermak3551131152M. Sobisek47118116113
LAug 26 · 21:29V. Cermak35871191M. Sobisek3811115113
LAug 26 · 19:00V. Cermak50131213121M. Sobisek54151015143
V. Cermak10
WSep 23 · 14:00J. Trefny1.851420V. Cermak1.851111113LSep 23 · 13:30V. Cermak2.1061111992M. Volf1.65119511113WSep 23 · 12:30M. Sobisek1.8011107101V. Cermak1.9181211123WSep 23 · 11:30V. Cermak1.80911911133D. Tuma1.91116119112LSep 23 · 10:30M. Volf1.67115511113V. Cermak2.1091111782LSep 18 · 03:30A. Hlawatschke1.27961116143V. Cermak3.251111814122WSep 18 · 01:30V. Cermak1.6771111113D. Tuma2.10119771WSep 18 · 24:30F. Just2.63116551V. Cermak1.4471111113LSep 17 · 23:30A. Hlawatschke1.441111113V. Cermak2.631690WSep 17 · 22:30V. Cermak1.671111113R. Krejci2.105240
M. Sobisek10
WSep 23 · 14:30M. Sobisek1.9131111113D. Tuma1.80115721LSep 23 · 13:00M. Sobisek1.9177110D. Tuma1.801111133LSep 23 · 12:30M. Sobisek1.8011107101V. Cermak1.9181211123LSep 23 · 11:00M. Sobisek1.446111311112M. Volf2.63115157133WSep 23 · 10:00D. Tuma1.807970M. Sobisek1.911111113LSep 21 · 03:06M. Vizek1.831111113M. Sobisek1.839950LSep 21 · 02:00M. Vizek2.001011511113M. Sobisek1.7312611562LSep 21 · 24:30M. Sobisek2.004850P. Pycha1.731111113WSep 20 · 23:00M. Sobisek1.83146119113D. Tuma1.83121151182WSep 20 · 22:00M. Chlebecek1.671312411112M. Sobisek2.1011101113133
Upcoming Matches
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M. Sobisek
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