TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Dalibor Velky Jr vs Adam Kanak 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Dalibor Velky Jr
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12107118111181012
Adam Kanak
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:00 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeAdam Kanak to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDalibor Velky Jr above · Adam Kanak below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 100 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Adam Kanak at 56.9%
100 points played in total.
H2H Dalibor Velky Jr 2–2 Adam Kanak Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:00What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Jr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1571 vs Kanak 1564
Jr
Wrong
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 40% vs Kanak 60%
Kanak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 30% vs Kanak 50%
Kanak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr -1 · Kanak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jr) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 1.80 / Kanak 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jr)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13182185
Jr1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 22)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite48% won 69 of 144
Up 2–0, closes it87% 33 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it72% 53 of 74
Kanak1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 21)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog67% won 29 of 43
Down 0–1, comes back41% 9 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back11% 1 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeJr2wins
AwayKanak2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr66.7%2 of 3
AwayKanakn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr3Kanak1n = 4Jr took 3 of 4
S2Jr2Kanak2n = 4split evenly
S3Jr2Kanak2n = 4split evenly
S4Jr2Kanak1n = 3Jr took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricJrKanakJ − KBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match40.235.5+4.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrKanakBasisWin rate · lifetime274 / 551 vs 74 / 13049.7%56.9%274 / 551 vs 74 / 130Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrJr 1.80/Kanak 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kanak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 18 · 20:10D. Jr50119811112A. Kanak46711114133
WSep 12 · 12:10D. Jr341111123A. Kanak2578100
LAug 27 · 05:45D. Jr34711791A. Kanak4211911113
WAug 24 · 17:40D. Jr43111011113A. Kanak29812271
D. Jr10
LSep 23 · 14:45D. Jr2.38111188102K. Kleprlik1.53991111123LSep 22 · 13:13T. Krenek1.50771111113D. Jr2.5011116782WSep 22 · 12:15D. Pawlik2.009790D. Jr1.731111113LSep 22 · 11:15D. Jr2.5011581182T. Krenek1.50911117113WSep 22 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.501191171D. Jr2.5013116113LSep 18 · 20:45D. Jr2.208580K. Kleprlik1.611111113LSep 18 · 20:10A. Kanak2.20711114133D. Jr1.61119811112WSep 18 · 19:10D. Jr2.631011811113K. Kleprlik1.4412511592LSep 18 · 17:40J. Travnicek1.831112113D. Jr1.8371090LSep 17 · 13:14L. Kantor1.5711911113D. Jr2.25411791
A. Kanak10
LSep 21 · 21:13A. Kanak1.679880E. Precek2.101111113WSep 21 · 19:45E. Precek2.0051161172A. Kanak1.73119118113LSep 21 · 19:15D. Branny2.501111113A. Kanak1.507960WSep 21 · 18:15A. Kanak2.001191011113P. Vinansky1.7391112472WSep 21 · 16:40A. Kanak2.1511312113D. Skulina1.639111041LSep 21 · 16:15B. Mrowetz1.831211113A. Kanak1.8310450LSep 21 · 15:15A. Kanak2.0047111192J. Krupnik1.73111179113WSep 21 · 13:45D. Skulina1.7311771172A. Kanak2.00511118113LSep 18 · 21:15J. Travnicek1.911211113A. Kanak1.8010680WSep 18 · 20:10A. Kanak2.20711114133D. Jr1.61119811112
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