TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr V Kovalchuk vs Viacheslav Kovalenko 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Oleksandr V Kovalchuk
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611117811119811
Viacheslav Kovalenko
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:40 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeViacheslav Kovalenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr V Kovalchuk above · Viacheslav Kovalenko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 93 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Viacheslav Kovalenko at 54.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr V Kovalchuk 39–29 Viacheslav Kovalenko Viacheslav Kovalenko has won 29 of their 68 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:40What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kovalchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
39-29 in 68
Kovalchuk
Wrong
gap of 10 in 68, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1546 vs Kovalenko 1592
Kovalenko
Correct
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 40% vs Kovalenko 60%
Kovalenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 60% vs Kovalenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk -1 · Kovalenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kovalenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 1.80 / Kovalenko 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kovalenko)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13179001
Kovalchuk1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite48% won 47 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it85% 23 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it71% 31 of 44
Kovalenko1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 55 of 141
Down 0–1, comes back14% 11 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk5wins
AwayKovalenko5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk100%4 of 4
AwayKovalenko83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk4Kovalenko6n = 10Kovalenko took 6 of 10
S2Kovalchuk5Kovalenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Kovalchuk5Kovalenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Kovalchuk4Kovalenko3n = 7Kovalchuk took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukKovalenkoKovalchuk − KovalenkoBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.137.3−0.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukKovalenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime327 / 775 vs 179 / 40842.2%43.9%327 / 775 vs 179 / 408Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalenkoKovalchuk 1.80/Kovalenko 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kovalenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kovalenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 23:55O. Kovalchuk3911611113V. Kovalenko28711461
LSep 3 · 01:25O. Kovalchuk399118111V. Kovalenko4111611133
LAug 26 · 16:55O. Kovalchuk2999110V. Kovalenko351111133
LAug 20 · 13:25O. Kovalchuk205870V. Kovalenko331111113
WAug 13 · 16:25O. Kovalchuk4312128113V. Kovalenko3810101171
LAug 12 · 21:55O. Kovalchuk29871131V. Kovalenko3811115113
WAug 12 · 02:55O. Kovalchuk4491311113V. Kovalenko361111861
LAug 6 · 16:25O. Kovalchuk4691171182V. Kovalenko44117114113
WAug 6 · 04:25O. Kovalchuk46115114153V. Kovalenko52811911132
WJul 30 · 13:55O. Kovalchuk361411113V. Kovalenko2812880
O. Kovalchuk10
LSep 23 · 01:55A. Chepurnyi1.36611111123O. Kovalchuk3.00111196102WSep 23 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk1.80111110113E. Rubtsov1.91431291LSep 22 · 23:55P. Plakushchyi1.531411113O. Kovalchuk2.3812870LSep 22 · 22:25O. Kovalchuk7.0091111692S. Ponomarenko1.08116511113WSep 17 · 03:55O. Kovalchuk1.731110114113V. Panasenko2.0041251132WSep 17 · 02:58O. Mishchenko1.67510100O. Kovalchuk2.101112123WSep 17 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk1.83111156113E. Rubtsov1.8393111142WSep 17 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk2.3811611113P. Plakushchyi1.53911761LSep 16 · 22:25O. Kovalchuk2.25118761O. Mishchenko1.5751111113WSep 16 · 03:55O. Kovalchuk1.8011118153E. Rubtsov1.919611131
V. Kovalenko10
WSep 23 · 02:55E. Rubtsov2.509490V. Kovalenko1.501111113LSep 23 · 01:25P. Plakushchyi1.7311911113V. Kovalenko2.00811961LSep 22 · 23:25S. Ponomarenko1.1011121111113V. Kovalenko6.5061413592WSep 22 · 21:25A. Chepurnyi1.36811981V. Kovalenko3.0011511113WSep 10 · 03:25V. Panasenko1.838980V. Kovalenko1.831111113WSep 10 · 02:25V. Kovalenko1.571111123E. Rubtsov2.2593100LSep 10 · 01:25V. Kovalenko2.001211811122P. Plakushchyi1.73144116143LSep 9 · 23:55V. Kovalenko1.83711461O. Kovalchuk1.8311611113WSep 9 · 21:55V. Kovalenko1.9111611113O. Mishchenko1.80311761WSep 3 · 03:25E. Rubtsov2.209480V. Kovalenko1.611111113
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