TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Ponomarenko vs Viacheslav Kovalenko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Serhii Ponomarenko
Home
1.10
At publish
Won last 20Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 20
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11612141113115119
Viacheslav Kovalenko
Away
6.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:27 and never touched — 89.4% is still 89.4%
Graded at full timeSerhii Ponomarenko to win
89.4%
89.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Ponomarenko above · Viacheslav Kovalenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 103 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Serhii Ponomarenko at 89.4%
103 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Ponomarenko 1–1 Viacheslav Kovalenko Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:27What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.10 (86%)
Ponomarenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 2190 vs Kovalenko 1595
Ponomarenko
Correct
both rated, 595 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 100% vs Kovalenko 60%
Ponomarenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 100% vs Kovalenko 70%
Ponomarenko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko +20 · Kovalenko +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 88% — Strong (leans Ponomarenko) · live re-read · sealed at 89% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (15%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 1.10 / Kovalenko 6.50
Signal prob.88% / 12%
Edge (Ponomarenko)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13179489
Ponomarenko1.10
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 20
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite88% won 305 of 345
Up 2–0, closes it100% 202 of 203
Up 1–0, closes it96% 254 of 266
Kovalenko6.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 55 of 141
Down 0–1, comes back14% 11 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomePonomarenko1wins
AwayKovalenko1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoKovalenkoP − KBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match41.038.0+3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoKovalenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime792 / 871 vs 178 / 40590.9%44%792 / 871 vs 178 / 405Avg sets wonper match2.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoPonomarenko 1.10/Kovalenko 6.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
88.3%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 2 · 21:55S. Ponomarenko3981011101V. Kovalenko4311128123
WAug 26 · 17:55S. Ponomarenko43111110113V. Kovalenko33861271
S. Ponomarenko10
WSep 22 · 22:25O. Kovalchuk7.0091111692S. Ponomarenko1.08116511113WSep 21 · 17:29S. Ponomarenko1.02101111113S. Kushnirenko10.50128211WSep 21 · 16:00S. Balabei7.008760S. Ponomarenko1.081111113WSep 21 · 14:30D. Yurkov8.501197111S. Ponomarenko1.0571111133WSep 21 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko11.001211331S. Ponomarenko1.0214711113WSep 21 · 12:00R. Horokh4.501591191S. Ponomarenko1.1717118113WSep 19 · 10:04I. Shyndel10.509660S. Ponomarenko1.021111113WSep 19 · 08:30S. Kushnirenko11.009960S. Ponomarenko1.021111113WSep 19 · 07:30S. Ponomarenko1.0511119113V. Komar8.50681161WSep 19 · 06:30D. Kryshtal8.506870S. Ponomarenko1.051111113
V. Kovalenko10
WSep 22 · 21:25A. Chepurnyi1.36811981V. Kovalenko3.0011511113WSep 10 · 03:25V. Panasenko1.838980V. Kovalenko1.831111113WSep 10 · 02:25V. Kovalenko1.571111123E. Rubtsov2.2593100LSep 10 · 01:25V. Kovalenko2.001211811122P. Plakushchyi1.73144116143LSep 9 · 23:55V. Kovalenko1.83711461O. Kovalchuk1.8311611113WSep 9 · 21:55V. Kovalenko1.9111611113O. Mishchenko1.80311761WSep 3 · 03:25E. Rubtsov2.209480V. Kovalenko1.611111113LSep 3 · 02:25V. Kovalenko1.9171171182O. Mishchenko1.80117113113WSep 3 · 01:25V. Kovalenko1.9111611133O. Kovalchuk1.809118111WSep 2 · 23:55V. Kovalenko2.109111211113P. Plakushchyi1.6711514482
Upcoming Matches
S. Ponomarenko
V. Kovalenko
Sep 23 · 01:25V. Kovalenko2.00P. Plakushchyi1.73—Sep 23 · 02:55V. Kovalenko1.50E. Rubtsov2.50—Sep 23 · 03:55V. Kovalenko1.91O. Kovalchuk1.80—Sep 23 · 13:05V. Kovalenko2.00P. Plakushchyi1.73—Sep 23 · 14:35V. Kovalenko1.50E. Rubtsov2.50—Sep 23 · 15:35V. Kovalenko6.50S. Ponomarenko1.10—Sep 23 · 16:35V. Kovalenko1.91O. Kovalchuk1.80—
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