TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Serhii Kushnirenko
Home
11.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1214117311311––
Serhii Ponomarenko
Away
1.02
At publish
Won last 20Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 20
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:03 and never touched — 92.9% is still 92.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Ponomarenko to win
92.9%
92.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Kushnirenko above · Serhii Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 72 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Serhii Ponomarenko at 92.9%
72 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Kushnirenko 1–60 Serhii Ponomarenko Serhii Kushnirenko has won 1 of their 61 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:03What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.02 (92%)
Ponomarenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-60 in 61
Ponomarenko
Correct
gap of 59 in 61, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kushnirenko 1862 vs Ponomarenko 2170
Ponomarenko
Correct
both rated, 308 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kushnirenko 40% vs Ponomarenko 100%
Ponomarenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kushnirenko 40% vs Ponomarenko 100%
Ponomarenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kushnirenko +1 · Ponomarenko +20
Ponomarenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 93% — Strong (leans Ponomarenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kushnirenko form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (9%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKushnirenko 11.00 / Ponomarenko 1.02
Signal prob.7% / 93%
Edge (Ponomarenko)+1.4pp
Setka Cup · #13166602
Kushnirenko11.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 19)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 134 of 401
Down 0–1, comes back18% 44 of 245
Down 0–2, comes back5% 7 of 134
Ponomarenko1.02
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 20
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite88% won 305 of 345
Up 2–0, closes it100% 204 of 205
Up 1–0, closes it96% 256 of 268
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKushnirenko1wins
AwayPonomarenko9wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPonomarenko leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKushnirenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayPonomarenko87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kushnirenko2Ponomarenko8n = 10Ponomarenko took 8 of 10
S2Kushnirenko0Ponomarenko10n = 10Ponomarenko took 10 of 10
S3Kushnirenko2Ponomarenko8n = 10Ponomarenko took 8 of 10
S4Kushnirenko1Ponomarenko3n = 4Ponomarenko took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away660%
These 10 meetings
MetricKushnirenkoPonomarenkoK − PBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match22.335.7−13.4per matchSweeps06−63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKushnirenkoPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime325 / 789 vs 787 / 86641.2%90.9%325 / 789 vs 787 / 866Avg sets wonper match1.82.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.738.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoKushnirenko 11.00/Ponomarenko 1.02
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
92.9%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 19 · 08:30S. Kushnirenko249960S. Ponomarenko331111113
LSep 18 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko175750S. Ponomarenko331111113
LSep 15 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko153750S. Ponomarenko331111113
LSep 12 · 07:00S. Kushnirenko24631141S. Ponomarenko3711114113
LSep 9 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko175660S. Ponomarenko331111113
LJul 29 · 12:30S. Kushnirenko91620S. Ponomarenko331111113
WJul 28 · 05:30S. Kushnirenko47771111113S. Ponomarenko4111117752
LJul 27 · 15:00S. Kushnirenko34115991S. Ponomarenko4071111113
LJul 22 · 07:30S. Kushnirenko23117321S. Ponomarenko4181111113
LJul 21 · 12:30S. Kushnirenko132650S. Ponomarenko331111113
S. Kushnirenko10
WSep 19 · 10:34D. Kryshtal1.61911161S. Kushnirenko2.2011811113LSep 19 · 09:30S. Kushnirenko2.2011411462D. Kryshtal1.61611711113LSep 19 · 08:30S. Kushnirenko11.009960S. Ponomarenko1.021111113LSep 19 · 07:00S. Kushnirenko1.916340I. Shyndel1.801111113WSep 19 · 06:00S. Kushnirenko2.0011119123V. Komar1.738811101LSep 18 · 16:59D. Kryshtal1.57111011113S. Kushnirenko2.25912451WSep 18 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko3.2511118113S. Balabei1.33881121WSep 18 · 15:30S. Kushnirenko2.20101112113D. Kryshtal1.611291091LSep 18 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko2.006111111112V. Komar1.73116138133LSep 18 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko10.505750S. Ponomarenko1.021111113
S. Ponomarenko10
WSep 21 · 12:00R. Horokh4.501591191S. Ponomarenko1.1717118113WSep 19 · 10:04I. Shyndel10.509660S. Ponomarenko1.021111113WSep 19 · 08:30S. Kushnirenko11.009960S. Ponomarenko1.021111113WSep 19 · 07:30S. Ponomarenko1.0511119113V. Komar8.50681161WSep 19 · 06:30D. Kryshtal8.506870S. Ponomarenko1.051111113WSep 19 · 05:30S. Ponomarenko1.031112113I. Shyndel10.0091070WSep 18 · 17:28S. Ponomarenko1.051111113V. Komar8.507370WSep 18 · 16:00V. Komar8.5091080S. Ponomarenko1.051112113WSep 18 · 14:30D. Kryshtal8.5012411372S. Ponomarenko1.051011911113WSep 18 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko10.505750S. Ponomarenko1.021111113
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