TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155044
Played Sep 18Finished
Serhii Ponomarenko
Home
1.05
At publish
Won last 20Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 20
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117113117––––
Vadim Komar
Away
8.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
How it is goingSerhii Ponomarenko above · Vadim Komar below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 50 set 3, 11-7
50 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Ponomarenko 137–7 Vadim Komar Vadim Komar has won 7 of their 144 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Ponomarenko beat Komar 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 91% — Strong (leans Ponomarenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Komar form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (12%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 1.05 / Komar 8.50
Signal prob.91% / 9%
Edge (Ponomarenko)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13155044
Ponomarenko1.05
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 20
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite88% won 304 of 344
Up 2–0, closes it100% 199 of 200
Up 1–0, closes it96% 252 of 264
Komar8.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 55 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back26% 20 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePonomarenko9wins
AwayKomar1wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPonomarenko leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko100%7 of 7
AwayKomar33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko7Komar3n = 10Ponomarenko took 7 of 10
S2Ponomarenko9Komar1n = 10Ponomarenko took 9 of 10
S3Ponomarenko9Komar1n = 10Ponomarenko took 9 of 10
S4Ponomarenko4Komar0n = 4Ponomarenko took 4 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home660%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoKomarP − KBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.626.3+11.3per matchSweeps60+63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoKomarBasisWin rate · lifetime785 / 864 vs 234 / 60790.9%38.6%785 / 864 vs 234 / 607Avg sets wonper match2.81.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.336.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoPonomarenko 1.05/Komar 8.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
91.4%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 16:00S. Ponomarenko341112113V. Komar2791080
WSep 12 · 06:00S. Ponomarenko331111113V. Komar184770
WSep 9 · 16:00S. Ponomarenko45111112113V. Komar345131061
WAug 29 · 08:00S. Ponomarenko331111113V. Komar156540
WAug 28 · 13:00S. Ponomarenko331111113V. Komar229760
LJun 20 · 09:30S. Ponomarenko47711711112V. Komar45115115133
WJun 18 · 10:29S. Ponomarenko331111113V. Komar229580
WJun 18 · 08:00S. Ponomarenko331111113V. Komar177370
WJun 2 · 10:38S. Ponomarenko4181111113V. Komar29115761
WJun 2 · 08:00S. Ponomarenko44101111123V. Komar341257101
S. Ponomarenko10
WSep 18 · 16:00V. Komar8.5091080S. Ponomarenko1.051112113WSep 18 · 14:30D. Kryshtal8.5012411372S. Ponomarenko1.051011911113WSep 18 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko10.505750S. Ponomarenko1.021111113WSep 18 · 12:00S. Balabei7.003260S. Ponomarenko1.081111113WSep 15 · 17:28S. Ponomarenko1.171113123R. Horokh4.50911100WSep 15 · 16:00S. Balabei7.009450S. Ponomarenko1.081111113WSep 15 · 14:30D. Kryshtal8.5011127862S. Ponomarenko1.052101111113WSep 15 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko10.003750S. Ponomarenko1.031111113WSep 15 · 12:00R. Horokh4.501312941S. Ponomarenko1.17111411113WSep 12 · 10:29D. Kryshtal7.0012711442S. Ponomarenko1.081011311113
V. Komar10
LSep 18 · 16:00V. Komar8.5091080S. Ponomarenko1.051112113LSep 18 · 15:00S. Balabei2.75913137113V. Komar1.401111111162WSep 18 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko2.006111111112V. Komar1.73116138133WSep 18 · 12:30D. Kryshtal1.531171081V. Komar2.3861112113LSep 12 · 09:00S. Kushnirenko2.101111113V. Komar1.679580LSep 12 · 07:30R. Horokh1.40101111113V. Komar2.75127831LSep 12 · 06:00S. Ponomarenko1.051111113V. Komar8.504770LSep 12 · 05:00D. Kryshtal1.501111113V. Komar2.505650LSep 11 · 17:02S. Balabei1.361112411163V. Komar3.00314119142WSep 11 · 16:00V. Komar2.00118116123S. Balabei1.73811211102
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