TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136114
Played Sep 15Finished
Serhii Ponomarenko
Home
1.17
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
11913111210––––
Roman Horokh
Away
4.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
How it is goingSerhii Ponomarenko above · Roman Horokh below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 66 set 3, 12-10
66 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Ponomarenko 261–36 Roman Horokh Roman Horokh has won 36 of their 297 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Ponomarenko beat Horokh 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 86% — Strong (leans Ponomarenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Horokh form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (22%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 1.17 / Horokh 4.50
Signal prob.86% / 14%
Edge (Ponomarenko)+6.2pp
Setka Cup · #13136114
Ponomarenko1.17
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite88% won 303 of 344
Up 2–0, closes it100% 198 of 199
Up 1–0, closes it95% 252 of 265
Horokh4.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog15% won 12 of 82
Down 0–1, comes back4% 2 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePonomarenko9wins
AwayHorokh1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPonomarenko leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko85.7%6 of 7
AwayHorokh0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko7Horokh3n = 10Ponomarenko took 7 of 10
S2Ponomarenko9Horokh1n = 10Ponomarenko took 9 of 10
S3Ponomarenko6Horokh4n = 10Ponomarenko took 6 of 10
S4Ponomarenko4Horokh2n = 6Ponomarenko took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoHorokhP − HBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.026.8+12.2per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoHorokhBasisWin rate · lifetime789 / 872 vs 700 / 124390.5%56.3%789 / 872 vs 700 / 1243Avg sets wonper match2.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoPonomarenko 1.17/Horokh 4.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
85.6%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 17 · 10:30S. Ponomarenko4211119113R. Horokh31761171
WJul 17 · 07:00S. Ponomarenko51911911113R. Horokh3911911262
WJul 15 · 07:30S. Ponomarenko48511129113R. Horokh40116101122
WJul 14 · 17:10S. Ponomarenko331111113R. Horokh94230
WJul 14 · 16:00S. Ponomarenko4181111113R. Horokh27118801
WJul 10 · 09:00S. Ponomarenko331111113R. Horokh216690
LJun 25 · 09:30S. Ponomarenko341110761R. Horokh3511211113
WJun 25 · 06:00S. Ponomarenko331111113R. Horokh207760
WJun 24 · 17:03S. Ponomarenko3811115113R. Horokh24721141
WJun 24 · 16:00S. Ponomarenko371111153R. Horokh2254130
S. Ponomarenko10
WSep 15 · 16:00S. Balabei7.009450S. Ponomarenko1.081111113WSep 15 · 14:30D. Kryshtal8.5011127862S. Ponomarenko1.052101111113WSep 15 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko10.003750S. Ponomarenko1.031111113WSep 15 · 12:00R. Horokh4.501312941S. Ponomarenko1.17111411113WSep 12 · 10:29D. Kryshtal7.0012711442S. Ponomarenko1.081011311113WSep 12 · 09:30S. Ponomarenko1.0311711113D. Kryshtal10.00911791WSep 12 · 08:30S. Ponomarenko1.1711911113R. Horokh4.50811861WSep 12 · 07:00S. Ponomarenko1.0311114113S. Kushnirenko10.00631141WSep 12 · 06:00S. Ponomarenko1.051111113V. Komar8.504770WSep 9 · 17:29S. Ponomarenko1.20118711113R. Horokh4.3361111872
R. Horokh10
LSep 16 · 16:59D. Kryshtal1.9111513113R. Horokh1.805111161LSep 16 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko2.501219113R. Horokh1.50101750WSep 16 · 15:00R. Horokh1.91631111113S. Balabei1.8011115462LSep 16 · 13:30R. Horokh1.4411791172D. Kryshtal2.63911116113WSep 16 · 12:00R. Horokh1.141111113S. Kiilo5.004760WSep 15 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko2.50711261R. Horokh1.5011811113WSep 15 · 15:00R. Horokh1.731111113S. Balabei2.004890LSep 15 · 12:00R. Horokh4.501312941S. Ponomarenko1.17111411113LSep 12 · 08:30S. Ponomarenko1.1711911113R. Horokh4.50811861LSep 9 · 17:29S. Ponomarenko1.20118711113R. Horokh4.3361111872
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