TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13137001
Played Sep 16Finished
Roman Horokh
Home
1.14
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114117116––––
Serhii Kiilo
Away
5.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:06 and never touched — 86.8% is still 86.8%
Graded at full timeRoman Horokh to win
86.8%
86.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Horokh above · Serhii Kiilo below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 50 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Roman Horokh at 86.8%
50 points played in total.
H2H Roman Horokh 90–9 Serhii Kiilo Serhii Kiilo has won 9 of their 99 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:06What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.14 (81%)
Horokh
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
90-9 in 99
Horokh
Correct
gap of 81 in 99, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Horokh 1954 vs Kiilo 1715
Horokh
Correct
both rated, 239 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Horokh 60% vs Kiilo 20%
Horokh
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Horokh 60% vs Kiilo 20%
Horokh
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Horokh -1 · Kiilo -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 87% — Strong (leans Horokh)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Horokh form (60%) is below what odds imply (88%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHorokh 1.14 / Kiilo 5.00
Signal prob.87% / 13%
Edge (Horokh)+5.4pp
Setka Cup · #13137001
Horokh1.14
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 298 of 449
Up 2–0, closes it96% 161 of 167
Up 1–0, closes it82% 228 of 279
Kiilo5.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog18% won 30 of 164
Down 0–1, comes back13% 16 of 127
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHorokh9wins
AwayKiilo1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHorokh leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHorokh87.5%7 of 8
AwayKiilon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Horokh8Kiilo2n = 10Horokh took 8 of 10
S2Horokh6Kiilo4n = 10Horokh took 6 of 10
S3Horokh6Kiilo4n = 10Horokh took 6 of 10
S4Horokh5Kiilo3n = 8Horokh took 5 of 8
S5Horokh3Kiilo0n = 3Horokh took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHorokhKiiloH − KBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match42.535.6+6.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHorokhKiiloBasisWin rate · lifetime700 / 1244 vs 99 / 37056.3%26.8%700 / 1244 vs 99 / 370Avg sets wonper match2.11.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.334.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HorokhHorokh 1.14/Kiilo 5.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
86.8%
Horokh · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Horokh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 12:00R. Horokh4111811113S. Kiilo28611651
WSep 8 · 12:00R. Horokh50911118113S. Kiilo4311961162
WSep 2 · 12:00R. Horokh52167711113S. Kiilo50141111952
WAug 19 · 16:00R. Horokh341112113S. Kiilo2351080
WAug 11 · 12:00R. Horokh43111110113S. Kiilo30281281
WJul 30 · 16:58R. Horokh4361111153S. Kiilo351147131
WJul 30 · 14:30R. Horokh49115129123S. Kiilo508111011102
WJul 24 · 07:30R. Horokh331111113S. Kiilo205690
LJul 16 · 12:00R. Horokh371177121S. Kiilo4591111143
WJul 6 · 11:58R. Horokh43111110113S. Kiilo32561291
R. Horokh10
LSep 15 · 17:28S. Ponomarenko1.171113123R. Horokh4.50911100WSep 15 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko2.50711261R. Horokh1.5011811113WSep 15 · 15:00R. Horokh1.731111113S. Balabei2.004890WSep 15 · 13:30R. Horokh1.441111124113D. Kryshtal2.6349141192LSep 15 · 12:00R. Horokh4.501312941S. Ponomarenko1.17111411113LSep 14 · 17:33S. Balabei2.001311911113R. Horokh1.7315511562WSep 14 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko2.50117122102R. Horokh1.503111011123LSep 14 · 15:00R. Horokh1.91151111161S. Balabei1.8017136183WSep 14 · 13:30R. Horokh1.11671116113M. Levytskii6.00111131492WSep 14 · 12:00R. Horokh1.1411811113S. Kiilo5.00611651
S. Kiilo10
LSep 16 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko1.3311129143S. Kiilo3.2591011121LSep 14 · 17:04S. Kiilo2.751011861S. Kushnirenko1.4012511113LSep 14 · 16:00S. Balabei1.14118911113S. Kiilo5.0071111692WSep 14 · 14:30M. Levytskii2.25781231S. Kiilo1.57111110113LSep 14 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko1.3612119113S. Kiilo3.001071141LSep 14 · 12:00R. Horokh1.1411811113S. Kiilo5.00611651LSep 8 · 17:14D. Kryshtal—11811113S. Kiilo—411571LSep 8 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko1.361111113S. Kiilo3.003690WSep 8 · 15:00S. Kiilo3.25611118123V. Komar1.33116911102LSep 8 · 13:30S. Kiilo3.75117311D. Kryshtal1.2571111113
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