TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13130355
Played Sep 14Finished
Serhii Kiilo
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012115811611––
Serhii Kushnirenko
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingSerhii Kiilo above · Serhii Kushnirenko below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 74 set 4, 6-11
74 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Kiilo 14–30 Serhii Kushnirenko Serhii Kiilo has won 14 of their 44 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Kushnirenko beat Kiilo 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Kushnirenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kushnirenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKiilo 2.75 / Kushnirenko 1.40
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Kushnirenko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13130355
Kiilo2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog19% won 30 of 160
Down 0–1, comes back13% 16 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 77
Kushnirenko1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite80% won 44 of 55
Up 2–0, closes it89% 24 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it90% 34 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKiilo3wins
AwayKushnirenko7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKushnirenko leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKiilo75%3 of 4
AwayKushnirenko100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kiilo4Kushnirenko6n = 10Kushnirenko took 6 of 10
S2Kiilo5Kushnirenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Kiilo4Kushnirenko6n = 10Kushnirenko took 6 of 10
S4Kiilo1Kushnirenko5n = 6Kushnirenko took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKiiloKushnirenkoKiilo − KushnirenkoBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.039.3−4.3per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKiiloKushnirenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime99 / 369 vs 324 / 78226.8%41.4%99 / 369 vs 324 / 782Avg sets wonper match1.41.8per matchAvg pointsper match34.535.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KushnirenkoKiilo 2.75/Kushnirenko 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.3%
Kushnirenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kushnirenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 13:00S. Kiilo321071141S. Kushnirenko4312119113
LSep 8 · 16:30S. Kiilo183690S. Kushnirenko331111113
LSep 2 · 17:05S. Kiilo54119131382S. Kushnirenko568111511113
WSep 2 · 13:30S. Kiilo341211113S. Kushnirenko2610880
WAug 19 · 17:03S. Kiilo541181113113S. Kushnirenko4671171562
LAug 19 · 12:30S. Kiilo33712951S. Kushnirenko43111011113
LAug 3 · 14:30S. Kiilo3910111081S. Kushnirenko4412912113
LAug 1 · 15:30S. Kiilo30811741S. Kushnirenko4211911113
LJul 6 · 17:14S. Kiilo2121270S. Kushnirenko361114113
WJul 6 · 14:30S. Kiilo351113113S. Kushnirenko2471160
S. Kiilo10
LSep 14 · 16:00S. Balabei1.14118911113S. Kiilo5.0071111692WSep 14 · 14:30M. Levytskii2.25781231S. Kiilo1.57111110113LSep 14 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko1.3612119113S. Kiilo3.001071141LSep 14 · 12:00R. Horokh1.1411811113S. Kiilo5.00611651LSep 8 · 17:14D. Kryshtal—11811113S. Kiilo—411571LSep 8 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko1.361111113S. Kiilo3.003690WSep 8 · 15:00S. Kiilo3.25611118123V. Komar1.33116911102LSep 8 · 13:30S. Kiilo3.75117311D. Kryshtal1.2571111113LSep 8 · 12:00S. Kiilo5.0011961162R. Horokh1.14911118113LSep 2 · 17:05S. Kushnirenko1.368111511113S. Kiilo3.00119131382
S. Kushnirenko10
LSep 14 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko2.50117122102R. Horokh1.503111011123WSep 14 · 15:30S. Kushnirenko1.25139711113M. Levytskii3.75111111392LSep 14 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko3.25117521S. Balabei1.3391111113WSep 14 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko1.3612119113S. Kiilo3.001071141LSep 12 · 10:00S. Kushnirenko2.2061111752R. Horokh1.61119911113WSep 12 · 09:00S. Kushnirenko2.101111113V. Komar1.679580LSep 12 · 08:00D. Kryshtal1.671111113S. Kushnirenko2.108670LSep 12 · 07:00S. Ponomarenko1.0311114113S. Kushnirenko10.00631141WSep 8 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko1.361111113S. Kiilo3.003690WSep 2 · 17:05S. Kushnirenko1.368111511113S. Kiilo3.00119131382
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