TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136677
Played Sep 16Finished
Roman Horokh
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611311115114116
Serhii Balabei
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:26 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Balabei to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRoman Horokh above · Serhii Balabei below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 79 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Serhii Balabei at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Roman Horokh 210–118 Serhii Balabei Serhii Balabei has won 118 of their 328 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:26What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Balabei
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
210-118 in 328
Horokh
Correct
gap of 92 in 328, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Horokh 1946 vs Balabei 1969
Balabei
Wrong
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Horokh 60% vs Balabei 40%
Horokh
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Horokh 50% vs Balabei 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Horokh -1 · Balabei -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Balabei)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Balabei form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHorokh 1.91 / Balabei 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Balabei)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13136677
Horokh1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog14% won 12 of 84
Down 0–1, comes back4% 2 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 44
Balabei1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite71% won 199 of 279
Up 2–0, closes it97% 96 of 99
Up 1–0, closes it88% 140 of 160
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHorokh4wins
AwayBalabei6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBalabei leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHorokh33.3%2 of 6
AwayBalabei50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Horokh6Balabei4n = 10Horokh took 6 of 10
S2Horokh3Balabei7n = 10Balabei took 7 of 10
S3Horokh5Balabei5n = 10split evenly
S4Horokh3Balabei4n = 7Balabei took 4 of 7
S5Horokh2Balabei3n = 5Balabei took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHorokhBalabeiH − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.741.3−1.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHorokhBalabeiBasisWin rate · lifetime701 / 1244 vs 513 / 100956.4%50.8%701 / 1244 vs 513 / 1009Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.336.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BalabeiHorokh 1.91/Balabei 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Balabei · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Horokh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 21 · 12:00R. Horokh557141211113S. Balabei49111610932
LAug 20 · 07:00R. Horokh4012831162S. Balabei491011116113
WAug 18 · 17:00R. Horokh351113113S. Balabei2361160
WAug 18 · 12:00R. Horokh495111210113S. Balabei45114101282
LAug 13 · 10:30R. Horokh4211125952S. Balabei529101111113
LAug 13 · 07:00R. Horokh257990S. Balabei331111113
WAug 12 · 16:00R. Horokh4011711113S. Balabei32911571
LAug 11 · 16:59R. Horokh561311117142S. Balabei561113511163
LAug 11 · 16:00R. Horokh2310760S. Balabei341211113
LAug 6 · 09:00R. Horokh321111551S. Balabei4051311113
R. Horokh10
LSep 16 · 13:30R. Horokh1.4411791172D. Kryshtal2.63911116113WSep 16 · 12:00R. Horokh1.141111113S. Kiilo5.004760LSep 15 · 17:28S. Ponomarenko1.171113123R. Horokh4.50911100WSep 15 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko2.50711261R. Horokh1.5011811113WSep 15 · 15:00R. Horokh1.731111113S. Balabei2.004890WSep 15 · 13:30R. Horokh1.441111124113D. Kryshtal2.6349141192LSep 15 · 12:00R. Horokh4.501312941S. Ponomarenko1.17111411113LSep 14 · 17:33S. Balabei2.001311911113R. Horokh1.7315511562WSep 14 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko2.50117122102R. Horokh1.503111011123LSep 14 · 15:00R. Horokh1.91151111161S. Balabei1.8017136183
S. Balabei10
LSep 16 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko3.4011711113S. Balabei1.30611591WSep 16 · 12:30D. Kryshtal2.501173101S. Balabei1.5061111123WSep 15 · 17:01S. Balabei1.401113113D. Kryshtal2.7581190LSep 15 · 16:00S. Balabei7.009450S. Ponomarenko1.081111113LSep 15 · 15:00R. Horokh1.731111113S. Balabei2.004890WSep 15 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko3.2581120S. Balabei1.331113113LSep 15 · 12:30D. Kryshtal2.3811116113S. Balabei1.53431161WSep 14 · 17:33S. Balabei2.001311911113R. Horokh1.7315511562WSep 14 · 16:00S. Balabei1.14118911113S. Kiilo5.0071111692WSep 14 · 15:00R. Horokh1.91151111161S. Balabei1.8017136183
Upcoming Matches
R. Horokh
S. Balabei
Nothing scheduled
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