TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136665
Played Sep 16Finished
Serhii Kushnirenko
Home
3.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116711115119––
Serhii Balabei
Away
1.30
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:00 and never touched — 78.6% is still 78.6%
Graded at full timeSerhii Balabei to win
78.6%
78.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSerhii Kushnirenko above · Serhii Balabei below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 71 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Serhii Balabei at 78.6%
71 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Kushnirenko 24–93 Serhii Balabei Serhii Kushnirenko has won 24 of their 117 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:00What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Balabei
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-93 in 117
Balabei
Wrong
gap of 69 in 117, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kushnirenko 1849 vs Balabei 1985
Balabei
Wrong
both rated, 136 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kushnirenko 20% vs Balabei 60%
Balabei
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kushnirenko 40% vs Balabei 70%
Balabei
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kushnirenko +1 · Balabei +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Balabei)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Balabei form (60%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKushnirenko 3.40 / Balabei 1.30
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Balabei)+6.3pp
Setka Cup · #13136665
Kushnirenko3.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 130 of 392
Down 0–1, comes back18% 43 of 239
Down 0–2, comes back5% 7 of 132
Balabei1.30
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite71% won 199 of 279
Up 2–0, closes it97% 96 of 99
Up 1–0, closes it88% 140 of 160
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKushnirenko2wins
AwayBalabei8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBalabei leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKushnirenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBalabei87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kushnirenko2Balabei8n = 10Balabei took 8 of 10
S2Kushnirenko3Balabei7n = 10Balabei took 7 of 10
S3Kushnirenko3Balabei7n = 10Balabei took 7 of 10
S4Kushnirenko1Balabei5n = 6Balabei took 5 of 6
S5Kushnirenko2Balabei1n = 3Kushnirenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricKushnirenkoBalabeiK − BBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match31.038.7−7.7per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKushnirenkoBalabeiBasisWin rate · lifetime326 / 788 vs 513 / 100841.4%50.9%326 / 788 vs 513 / 1008Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.736.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BalabeiKushnirenko 3.40/Balabei 1.30
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
78.6%
Balabei · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kushnirenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko27611731S. Balabei4011711113
WAug 31 · 13:30S. Kushnirenko46116117113S. Balabei4551191192
LAug 26 · 07:00S. Kushnirenko219480S. Balabei331111113
LAug 25 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko189450S. Balabei331111113
WAug 22 · 12:30S. Kushnirenko4687111193S. Balabei4311117862
LAug 20 · 08:30S. Kushnirenko214890S. Balabei331111113
LAug 18 · 13:30S. Kushnirenko30841171S. Balabei3811115113
LAug 15 · 17:04S. Kushnirenko4511119772S. Balabei48781111113
LAug 15 · 16:00S. Kushnirenko34814751S. Balabei4111121173
LAug 13 · 08:30S. Kushnirenko227780S. Balabei331111113
S. Kushnirenko10
WSep 16 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko1.3311129143S. Kiilo3.2591011121LSep 15 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko2.50711261R. Horokh1.5011811113LSep 15 · 15:30S. Kushnirenko2.207128101D. Kryshtal1.61111011123LSep 15 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko3.2581120S. Balabei1.331113113LSep 15 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko10.003750S. Ponomarenko1.031111113WSep 14 · 17:04S. Kiilo2.751011861S. Kushnirenko1.4012511113LSep 14 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko2.50117122102R. Horokh1.503111011123WSep 14 · 15:30S. Kushnirenko1.25139711113M. Levytskii3.75111111392LSep 14 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko3.25117521S. Balabei1.3391111113WSep 14 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko1.3612119113S. Kiilo3.001071141
S. Balabei10
LSep 16 · 15:00R. Horokh1.91631111113S. Balabei1.8011115462WSep 16 · 12:30D. Kryshtal2.501173101S. Balabei1.5061111123WSep 15 · 17:01S. Balabei1.401113113D. Kryshtal2.7581190LSep 15 · 16:00S. Balabei7.009450S. Ponomarenko1.081111113LSep 15 · 15:00R. Horokh1.731111113S. Balabei2.004890WSep 15 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko3.2581120S. Balabei1.331113113LSep 15 · 12:30D. Kryshtal2.3811116113S. Balabei1.53431161WSep 14 · 17:33S. Balabei2.001311911113R. Horokh1.7315511562WSep 14 · 16:00S. Balabei1.14118911113S. Kiilo5.0071111692WSep 14 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko3.25117521S. Balabei1.3391111113
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