TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131193
Played Sep 15Finished
Serhii Balabei
Home
7.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911411511––––
Serhii Ponomarenko
Away
1.08
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:10 and never touched — 90.0% is still 90.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Ponomarenko to win
90.0%
90.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Balabei above · Serhii Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 51 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Serhii Ponomarenko at 90.0%
51 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Balabei 11–184 Serhii Ponomarenko Serhii Balabei has won 11 of their 195 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:10What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.08 (87%)
Ponomarenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-184 in 195
Ponomarenko
Correct
gap of 173 in 195, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Balabei 1977 vs Ponomarenko 2053
Ponomarenko
Correct
both rated, 76 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Balabei 60% vs Ponomarenko 100%
Ponomarenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Balabei 70% vs Ponomarenko 100%
Ponomarenko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Balabei -1 · Ponomarenko +5
Ponomarenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 90% — Strong (leans Ponomarenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Balabei form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (14%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBalabei 7.00 / Ponomarenko 1.08
Signal prob.10% / 90%
Edge (Ponomarenko)+3.4pp
Setka Cup · #13131193
Balabei7.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog30% won 49 of 164
Down 0–1, comes back20% 22 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 59
Ponomarenko1.08
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite88% won 303 of 344
Up 2–0, closes it100% 198 of 199
Up 1–0, closes it95% 252 of 265
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBalabei0wins
AwayPonomarenko10wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPonomarenko leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBalabei0%0 of 3
AwayPonomarenko100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Balabei3Ponomarenko7n = 10Ponomarenko took 7 of 10
S2Balabei3Ponomarenko7n = 10Ponomarenko took 7 of 10
S3Balabei2Ponomarenko8n = 10Ponomarenko took 8 of 10
S4Balabei0Ponomarenko6n = 6Ponomarenko took 6 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricBalabeiPonomarenkoB − PBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match27.839.9−12.1per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBalabeiPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime511 / 1005 vs 788 / 87150.9%90.5%511 / 1005 vs 788 / 871Avg sets wonper match2.02.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoBalabei 7.00/Ponomarenko 1.08
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
90%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 29 · 10:35S. Balabei216690S. Ponomarenko331111113
LAug 29 · 07:00S. Balabei3811111872S. Ponomarenko47116811113
LAug 28 · 16:00S. Balabei3361111232S. Ponomarenko46117611113
LJul 29 · 15:00S. Balabei136340S. Ponomarenko331111113
LJul 28 · 07:00S. Balabei26117531S. Ponomarenko4291111113
LJul 24 · 07:00S. Balabei30711571S. Ponomarenko3911611113
LJul 23 · 14:30S. Balabei32111290S. Ponomarenko381314113
LJul 22 · 10:28S. Balabei26115731S. Ponomarenko4291111113
LJul 22 · 06:00S. Balabei361366111S. Ponomarenko46111111133
LJul 15 · 09:59S. Balabei236890S. Ponomarenko331111113
S. Balabei10
LSep 15 · 15:00R. Horokh1.731111113S. Balabei2.004890WSep 15 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko3.2581120S. Balabei1.331113113LSep 15 · 12:30D. Kryshtal2.3811116113S. Balabei1.53431161WSep 14 · 17:33S. Balabei2.001311911113R. Horokh1.7315511562WSep 14 · 16:00S. Balabei1.14118911113S. Kiilo5.0071111692WSep 14 · 15:00R. Horokh1.91151111161S. Balabei1.8017136183WSep 14 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko3.25117521S. Balabei1.3391111113WSep 14 · 12:30M. Levytskii4.5010613101S. Balabei1.17121111123WSep 11 · 17:02S. Balabei1.361112411163V. Komar3.00314119142LSep 11 · 16:00V. Komar2.00118116123S. Balabei1.73811211102
S. Ponomarenko10
WSep 15 · 14:30D. Kryshtal8.5011127862S. Ponomarenko1.052101111113WSep 15 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko10.003750S. Ponomarenko1.031111113WSep 15 · 12:00R. Horokh4.501312941S. Ponomarenko1.17111411113WSep 12 · 10:29D. Kryshtal7.0012711442S. Ponomarenko1.081011311113WSep 12 · 09:30S. Ponomarenko1.0311711113D. Kryshtal10.00911791WSep 12 · 08:30S. Ponomarenko1.1711911113R. Horokh4.50811861WSep 12 · 07:00S. Ponomarenko1.0311114113S. Kushnirenko10.00631141WSep 12 · 06:00S. Ponomarenko1.051111113V. Komar8.504770WSep 9 · 17:29S. Ponomarenko1.20118711113R. Horokh4.3361111872WSep 9 · 16:00V. Komar8.505131061S. Ponomarenko1.05111112113
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