TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr V Kovalchuk vs Eduard Rubtsov 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Oleksandr V Kovalchuk
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1141131012119––
Eduard Rubtsov
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:03 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr V Kovalchuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr V Kovalchuk above · Eduard Rubtsov below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 71 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Oleksandr V Kovalchuk at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr V Kovalchuk 111–107 Eduard Rubtsov Eduard Rubtsov has won 107 of their 218 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:03What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kovalchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
111-107 in 218
Kovalchuk
Correct
gap of 4 in 218, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1543 vs Rubtsov 1406
Kovalchuk
Correct
both rated, 137 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 60% vs Rubtsov 20%
Kovalchuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 60% vs Rubtsov 20%
Kovalchuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk -2 · Rubtsov -3
Rubtsov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kovalchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rubtsov form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 1.80 / Rubtsov 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13176263
Kovalchuk1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite48% won 47 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it85% 23 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it71% 31 of 44
Rubtsov1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 98 of 284
Down 0–1, comes back13% 21 of 158
Down 0–2, comes back9% 10 of 117
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk4wins
AwayRubtsov6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderRubtsov leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk80%4 of 5
AwayRubtsov100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk5Rubtsov5n = 10split evenly
S2Kovalchuk6Rubtsov4n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S3Kovalchuk3Rubtsov7n = 10Rubtsov took 7 of 10
S4Kovalchuk5Rubtsov3n = 8Kovalchuk took 5 of 8
S5Kovalchuk2Rubtsov4n = 6Rubtsov took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukRubtsovK − RBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.640.8−1.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukRubtsovBasisWin rate · lifetime326 / 773 vs 290 / 75442.2%38.5%326 / 773 vs 290 / 754Avg sets wonper match1.81.7per matchAvg pointsper match36.935.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukKovalchuk 1.80/Rubtsov 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.3%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk44111156113E. Rubtsov3893111142
WSep 16 · 03:55O. Kovalchuk4511118153E. Rubtsov399611131
WSep 9 · 22:25O. Kovalchuk47111177113E. Rubtsov3945111182
WSep 9 · 02:55O. Kovalchuk331111113E. Rubtsov177460
LSep 3 · 18:25O. Kovalchuk301110541E. Rubtsov4281211113
LSep 2 · 21:25O. Kovalchuk4497111162E. Rubtsov46111158113
LAug 26 · 18:55O. Kovalchuk3882111162E. Rubtsov48111178113
LAug 25 · 21:25O. Kovalchuk2511680E. Rubtsov351311113
LAug 20 · 17:25O. Kovalchuk48111191162E. Rubtsov52138119113
LAug 19 · 03:25O. Kovalchuk42614111102E. Rubtsov521112116123
O. Kovalchuk10
LSep 22 · 23:55P. Plakushchyi1.531411113O. Kovalchuk2.3812870LSep 22 · 22:25O. Kovalchuk7.0091111692S. Ponomarenko1.08116511113WSep 17 · 03:55O. Kovalchuk1.731110114113V. Panasenko2.0041251132WSep 17 · 02:58O. Mishchenko1.67510100O. Kovalchuk2.101112123WSep 17 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk2.3811611113P. Plakushchyi1.53911761WSep 17 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk1.83111156113E. Rubtsov1.8393111142LSep 16 · 22:25O. Kovalchuk2.25118761O. Mishchenko1.5751111113WSep 16 · 03:55O. Kovalchuk1.8011118153E. Rubtsov1.919611131WSep 16 · 02:53O. Mishchenko1.676760O. Kovalchuk2.101111113LSep 16 · 01:55P. Plakushchyi2.501113113O. Kovalchuk1.5031150
E. Rubtsov10
LSep 22 · 22:55A. Chepurnyi1.361110611133E. Rubtsov3.00512116112LSep 22 · 21:55P. Plakushchyi1.441411113E. Rubtsov2.6312590LSep 17 · 04:25O. Mishchenko1.361111113E. Rubtsov3.005870WSep 17 · 02:55E. Rubtsov2.201112811113V. Panasenko1.6171411432LSep 17 · 02:31E. Rubtsov1.911110581P. Plakushchyi1.8071211113LSep 17 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk1.83111156113E. Rubtsov1.8393111142LSep 16 · 03:55O. Kovalchuk1.8011118153E. Rubtsov1.919611131LSep 16 · 02:55O. Mishchenko1.3311119113E. Rubtsov3.25551161LSep 16 · 02:29E. Rubtsov2.55511781P. Plakushchyi1.4511911113WSep 16 · 01:25V. Panasenko1.67811511102E. Rubtsov2.10117112123
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