TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
David Stusek vs Daniel Vitasek 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
David Stusek
Home
1.29
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119117911117––
Daniel Vitasek
Away
3.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:25 and never touched — 67.5% is still 67.5%
Graded at full timeDavid Stusek to win
67.5%
67.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Stusek above · Daniel Vitasek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 76 set 4, 11-7 — our read held David Stusek at 67.5%
76 points played in total.
H2H David Stusek 6–4 Daniel Vitasek Daniel Vitasek has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:25What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Stusek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Stusek
Correct
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stusek 1599 vs Vitasek 1497
Stusek
Correct
both rated, 102 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stusek 60% vs Vitasek 20%
Stusek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stusek 60% vs Vitasek 20%
Stusek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stusek +1 · Vitasek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Stusek) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stusek form (60%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStusek 1.28 / Vitasek 3.50
Signal prob.74% / 26%
Edge (Stusek)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13176738
Stusek1.28
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 16)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 28 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it77% 17 of 22
Vitasek3.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 20)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 87 of 180
Down 0–1, comes back24% 23 of 98
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStusek6wins
AwayVitasek4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderStusek leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStusek80%4 of 5
AwayVitasek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stusek5Vitasek5n = 10split evenly
S2Stusek7Vitasek3n = 10Stusek took 7 of 10
S3Stusek6Vitasek4n = 10Stusek took 6 of 10
S4Stusek5Vitasek3n = 8Stusek took 5 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStusekVitasekS − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.535.4+2.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStusekVitasekBasisWin rate · lifetime94 / 189 vs 300 / 62949.7%47.7%94 / 189 vs 300 / 629Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.137.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StusekStusek 1.28/Vitasek 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.3%
Stusek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Stusek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 23 · 08:50D. Stusek331111113D. Vitasek227870
LAug 23 · 07:15D. Stusek32711861D. Vitasek3911611113
LAug 2 · 17:45D. Stusek44101141182D. Vitasek48125119113
WJul 31 · 18:40D. Stusek4581511113D. Vitasek391113871
WMay 11 · 21:10D. Stusek341111123D. Vitasek2697100
WMay 11 · 20:10D. Stusek3961111113D. Vitasek28113681
WMay 10 · 20:39D. Stusek4011126113D. Vitasek368101171
LMay 10 · 20:10D. Stusek32115881D. Vitasek3961111113
LApr 28 · 08:15D. Stusek32871161D. Vitasek4011117113
WDec 11 · 18:45D. Stusek44111111113D. Vitasek37913781
D. Stusek10
WSep 22 · 18:45D. Stusek1.8012111112113T. Fojtik1.9114341482WSep 16 · 20:38D. Stusek1.574111116113A. Cizek2.2511781832LSep 16 · 19:45D. Stusek1.8010111071A. Kanak1.9112612113LSep 16 · 18:45D. Stusek1.4497111172I. Heuman2.63111186113WSep 16 · 17:45D. Stusek1.61381111113A. Cizek2.2011119392WSep 15 · 21:08D. Stusek1.7311811113J. Travnicek2.00711271WSep 15 · 19:40J. Travnicek1.83961171D. Stusek1.8311116113WSep 15 · 19:10I. Heuman2.2010760D. Stusek1.611211113LSep 15 · 18:10D. Stusek1.80117691A. Kanak1.9141111113LSep 6 · 09:25J. Gembala1.611111113D. Stusek2.206970
D. Vitasek10
LSep 22 · 19:15D. Vitasek1.8031251182J. Travnicek1.911110119113WSep 20 · 20:54J. Travnicek1.839490D. Vitasek1.831111113LSep 20 · 20:15J. Travnicek1.9110111110113D. Vitasek1.8012851282LSep 20 · 19:15D. Vitasek2.6351211121J. Skvrna1.4411148143LSep 20 · 17:45M. Macurak1.571111113D. Vitasek2.259990LSep 19 · 08:40D. Vitasek1.807111131E. Precek1.9111913113WSep 19 · 08:10D. Vitasek1.831111113E. Precek1.837840LSep 19 · 06:40F. Chaloupka1.5781111113D. Vitasek2.25116891LSep 19 · 06:10J. Travnicek2.7512111110113D. Vitasek1.40105131272LSep 18 · 08:43D. Pawlik1.501311113D. Vitasek2.5011750
Upcoming Matches
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D. Vitasek
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