TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Maksym Karelov vs Hennadii Buianover 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Maksym Karelov
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115113118––––
Hennadii Buianover
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:08 and never touched — 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeHennadii Buianover to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaksym Karelov above · Hennadii Buianover below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 49 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Hennadii Buianover at 62.1%
49 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Karelov 7–13 Hennadii Buianover Maksym Karelov has won 7 of their 20 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 22:08What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Buianover
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-13 in 20
Buianover
Wrong
gap of 6 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karelov 1137 vs Buianover 1258
Buianover
Wrong
both rated, 121 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karelov 60% vs Buianover 40%
Karelov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karelov 30% vs Buianover 60%
Buianover
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Karelov -1 · Buianover +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Buianover) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Buianover form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarelov 2.10 / Buianover 1.67
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Buianover)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13173402
Karelov2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 23 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back19% 7 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 27
Buianover1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 26 of 43
Up 2–0, closes it88% 15 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it77% 20 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKarelov3wins
AwayBuianover7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBuianover leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarelov50%2 of 4
AwayBuianover83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karelov4Buianover6n = 10Buianover took 6 of 10
S2Karelov5Buianover5n = 10split evenly
S3Karelov3Buianover7n = 10Buianover took 7 of 10
S4Karelov3Buianover3n = 6split evenly
S5Karelov1Buianover3n = 4Buianover took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKarelovBuianoverK − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.838.0−1.2per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarelovBuianoverBasisWin rate · lifetime41 / 114 vs 156 / 38536%40.5%41 / 114 vs 156 / 385Avg sets wonper match1.71.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.735.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BuianoverKarelov 2.10/Buianover 1.67
Miss
What we said
60.2%
Buianover · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Karelov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 16:05M. Karelov371313113H. Buianover31111190
LSep 13 · 17:35M. Karelov196760H. Buianover331111113
LSep 9 · 19:35M. Karelov2810990H. Buianover341211113
LSep 2 · 15:35M. Karelov3911151392H. Buianover471131111113
WSep 1 · 13:05M. Karelov3911116113H. Buianover29751161
LAug 30 · 14:25M. Karelov48111171182H. Buianover48139114113
LAug 27 · 16:05M. Karelov371110971H. Buianover3621211113
LAug 12 · 17:05M. Karelov279990H. Buianover331111113
LAug 10 · 17:35M. Karelov46124118112H. Buianover511011611133
WAug 9 · 15:05M. Karelov48611119113H. Buianover3811561152
M. Karelov10
LSep 22 · 15:05V. Lukianevych1.301111133M. Karelov3.4062110WSep 22 · 13:35M. Karelov2.0011146123V. Reva1.7391211101WSep 16 · 19:35V. Reva1.6710411111M. Karelov2.1012116133LSep 16 · 18:05M. Karelov3.406960V. Leonov1.301111113WSep 16 · 16:05H. Buianover1.40111190M. Karelov2.751313113LSep 16 · 14:05A. Sydorenko1.251111143M. Karelov3.7577120LSep 16 · 13:05V. Lukianevych1.331111113M. Karelov3.257720LSep 13 · 19:35M. Karelov3.2591161182V. Lukianevych1.33118118113LSep 13 · 17:35H. Buianover1.501111113M. Karelov2.506760LSep 13 · 15:35V. Melnyk3.00812117113M. Karelov1.36111081192
H. Buianover10
WSep 22 · 14:05A. Sydorenko1.288911121H. Buianover3.5011117143LSep 22 · 13:05V. Lukianevych1.5041111113H. Buianover2.50117541WSep 16 · 19:05H. Buianover4.5011119113V. Leonov1.17961191LSep 16 · 17:05A. Sydorenko1.28122811113H. Buianover3.50101111942LSep 16 · 16:05H. Buianover1.40111190M. Karelov2.751313113WSep 16 · 15:05V. Lukianevych1.50711591H. Buianover2.5011411113WSep 16 · 13:35H. Buianover2.001111113V. Reva1.736880WSep 13 · 18:35V. Melnyk4.3371140H. Buianover1.201113113WSep 13 · 17:35H. Buianover1.501111113M. Karelov2.506760LSep 13 · 16:35H. Buianover1.6777111182V. Kruglyak2.10111139113
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