TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Maksym Karelov vs Vadim Reva 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Maksym Karelov
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11914126111210––
Vadim Reva
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:10 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeVadim Reva to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaksym Karelov above · Vadim Reva below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 85 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Vadim Reva at 54.9%
85 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Karelov 10–11 Vadim Reva Maksym Karelov has won 10 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:10What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Reva
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-11 in 21
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karelov 1128 vs Reva 1255
Reva
Wrong
both rated, 127 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karelov 40% vs Reva 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karelov 30% vs Reva 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Karelov +1 · Reva -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Reva)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Reva form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarelov 2.00 / Reva 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Reva)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13173092
Karelov2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 16)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 23 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back19% 7 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 27
Reva1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 16)
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite67% won 64 of 95
Up 2–0, closes it92% 36 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it83% 47 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKarelov7wins
AwayReva3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKarelov leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarelov80%4 of 5
AwayReva40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karelov5Reva5n = 10split evenly
S2Karelov5Reva5n = 10split evenly
S3Karelov6Reva4n = 10Karelov took 6 of 10
S4Karelov5Reva2n = 7Karelov took 5 of 7
S5Karelov3Reva1n = 4Karelov took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKarelovRevaK − RBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.537.1+2.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarelovRevaBasisWin rate · lifetime40 / 113 vs 212 / 38535.4%55.1%40 / 113 vs 212 / 385Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RevaKarelov 2.00/Reva 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Reva · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Karelov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 19:35M. Karelov4212116133V. Reva3610411111
WSep 9 · 16:05M. Karelov331111113V. Reva227870
WSep 2 · 13:35M. Karelov4011711113V. Reva29811821
WSep 1 · 17:35M. Karelov331111113V. Reva187560
LAug 30 · 20:25M. Karelov4512613952V. Reva5410111111113
LAug 27 · 19:35M. Karelov2611780V. Reva351311113
WAug 19 · 19:35M. Karelov46571211113V. Reva44111110572
LAug 12 · 15:35M. Karelov313121151V. Reva4511149113
WAug 10 · 13:05M. Karelov521012811113V. Reva50121011892
WAug 9 · 16:05M. Karelov474111011113V. Reva3811812252
M. Karelov10
LSep 22 · 15:05V. Lukianevych1.301111133M. Karelov3.4062110WSep 16 · 19:35V. Reva1.6710411111M. Karelov2.1012116133LSep 16 · 18:05M. Karelov3.406960V. Leonov1.301111113WSep 16 · 16:05H. Buianover1.40111190M. Karelov2.751313113LSep 16 · 14:05A. Sydorenko1.251111143M. Karelov3.7577120LSep 16 · 13:05V. Lukianevych1.331111113M. Karelov3.257720LSep 13 · 19:35M. Karelov3.2591161182V. Lukianevych1.33118118113LSep 13 · 17:35H. Buianover1.501111113M. Karelov2.506760LSep 13 · 15:35V. Melnyk3.00812117113M. Karelov1.36111081192LSep 13 · 14:35M. Karelov2.634760V. Kruglyak1.441111113
V. Reva10
WSep 22 · 14:35V. Reva2.00111014113R. Serhyenko1.735121261LSep 16 · 19:35V. Reva1.6710411111M. Karelov2.1012116133WSep 16 · 17:35V. Lukianevych2.006680V. Reva1.731111113WSep 16 · 15:35A. Sydorenko1.61111014482V. Reva2.205121211113LSep 16 · 14:35V. Reva3.509330V. Leonov1.281111113LSep 16 · 13:35H. Buianover2.001111113V. Reva1.736880WSep 9 · 19:05V. Reva1.731111113V. Lukianevych2.005740LSep 9 · 17:05V. Leonov1.28126611113V. Reva3.50101111612LSep 9 · 16:05V. Reva1.537870M. Karelov2.381111113LSep 9 · 15:05A. Sydorenko1.67111112113V. Reva2.10381451
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