TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ladislav Moravec vs Petr Chlumsky 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Ladislav Moravec
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911811811––––
Petr Chlumsky
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:30 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timePetr Chlumsky to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLadislav Moravec above · Petr Chlumsky below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 58 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Petr Chlumsky at 58.9%
58 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Moravec 14–13 Petr Chlumsky Petr Chlumsky has won 13 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:30What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Chlumsky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-13 in 27
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1476 vs Chlumsky 1444
Moravec
Wrong
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 0% vs Chlumsky 40%
Chlumsky
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 30% vs Chlumsky 50%
Chlumsky
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec -6 · Chlumsky +1
Moravec
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Moravec) · live re-read · sealed at 41% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chlumsky form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 1.83 / Chlumsky 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Moravec)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13173290
Moravec1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 17)
Lost last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Chlumsky1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoravec4wins
AwayChlumsky6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderChlumsky leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravec50%2 of 4
AwayChlumsky66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravec4Chlumsky6n = 10Chlumsky took 6 of 10
S2Moravec3Chlumsky7n = 10Chlumsky took 7 of 10
S3Moravec7Chlumsky3n = 10Moravec took 7 of 10
S4Moravec3Chlumsky6n = 9Chlumsky took 6 of 9
S5Moravec2Chlumsky1n = 3Moravec took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMoravecChlumskyM − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.341.5−0.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecChlumskyBasisWin rate · lifetime114 / 270 vs 136 / 30142.2%45.2%114 / 270 vs 136 / 301Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecMoravec 1.83/Chlumsky 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Chlumsky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 13:58L. Moravec49148115113P. Chlumsky51121191182
LSep 9 · 12:55L. Moravec3910111171P. Chlumsky4312713113
WJul 27 · 11:55L. Moravec49791111113P. Chlumsky3811116822
LApr 14 · 11:55L. Moravec45761111102P. Chlumsky47111158123
LApr 7 · 11:55L. Moravec32115881P. Chlumsky4071111113
LMar 31 · 11:55L. Moravec4414131161P. Chlumsky4816156113
WMar 17 · 13:55L. Moravec331111113P. Chlumsky228860
LMar 12 · 15:35L. Moravec33118771P. Chlumsky3851111113
LMar 12 · 11:55L. Moravec4313101461P. Chlumsky50151212113
WMar 11 · 14:25L. Moravec46111311113P. Chlumsky381311771
L. Moravec10
LSep 17 · 14:09A. Kral1.501411113L. Moravec2.5012840LSep 17 · 13:25L. Moravec1.4011451172F. Marat2.75811119113LSep 17 · 11:55M. Filipek1.801111412113L. Moravec1.91139111062LSep 17 · 11:25A. Kral1.5311713113L. Moravec2.384111181LSep 11 · 17:55L. Moravec1.3097130D. Sochor3.401111153LSep 11 · 16:55M. Dvorak1.57491111113L. Moravec2.2511114752WSep 11 · 16:25D. Sochor1.675680L. Moravec2.101111113LSep 11 · 15:25L. Moravec2.201011781A. Kral1.6112511113WSep 10 · 18:00J. Hendrych1.65111161252L. Moravec2.10661114113WSep 10 · 16:20L. Moravec2.001211113M. Dolezal1.7310860
P. Chlumsky10
WSep 21 · 14:15A. Kral1.911191161P. Chlumsky1.8051113113LSep 21 · 13:25F. Balcar1.571281110113P. Chlumsky2.25101171232LSep 21 · 12:25P. Chlumsky1.573790M. Filipek2.251111113LSep 21 · 10:55A. Kral2.0011811113P. Chlumsky1.73311881WSep 15 · 14:24D. Sochor2.10117116102P. Chlumsky1.67611811123WSep 15 · 12:55D. Sochor1.83781181P. Chlumsky1.8311119113LSep 15 · 12:25P. Moravec1.57116124113P. Chlumsky2.25711101132WSep 15 · 11:25P. Chlumsky1.83121212113A. Kral1.8310101471LSep 9 · 13:58P. Chlumsky1.83121191182L. Moravec1.83148115113WSep 9 · 12:55P. Chlumsky2.0012713113L. Moravec1.7310111171
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