TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Erik Mares vs Tomas Kos 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 22Finished
Erik Mares
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9111012911––––
Tomas Kos
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:35 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeTomas Kos to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingErik Mares above · Tomas Kos below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 62 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Tomas Kos at 58.9%
62 points played in total.
H2H Erik Mares 20–20 Tomas Kos Dead even across their 40 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:35What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kos
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-20 in 40
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mares 1893 vs Kos 1969
Kos
Correct
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mares 60% vs Kos 80%
Kos
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mares 60% vs Kos 80%
Kos
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mares +2 · Kos +3
Kos
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Kos) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kos form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 2.20 / Kos 1.61
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Kos)+3.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13169601
Mares2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 101 of 219
Down 0–1, comes back26% 29 of 112
Down 0–2, comes back13% 9 of 68
Kos1.61
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 31 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it79% 26 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMares4wins
AwayKos6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKos leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMares66.7%4 of 6
AwayKos100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mares6Kos4n = 10Mares took 6 of 10
S2Mares6Kos4n = 10Mares took 6 of 10
S3Mares3Kos7n = 10Kos took 7 of 10
S4Mares2Kos4n = 6Kos took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaresKosM − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match33.836.5−2.7per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresKosBasisWin rate · lifetime604 / 1197 vs 97 / 18550.5%52.4%604 / 1197 vs 97 / 185Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.236.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KosMares 2.20/Kos 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.9%
Kos · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kos won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 20:00E. Mares3811124113T. Kos388101191
WSep 12 · 10:30E. Mares381314113T. Kos31111280
LSep 12 · 09:30E. Mares311164101T. Kos4281111123
LSep 12 · 07:30E. Mares31571181T. Kos3411111113
WAug 30 · 11:30E. Mares3711114113T. Kos36891181
LAug 30 · 06:30E. Mares25411551T. Kos4011711113
LAug 28 · 12:30E. Mares2714580T. Kos381611113
LAug 20 · 15:00E. Mares50111110992T. Kos51891211113
LAug 20 · 13:28E. Mares2891270T. Kos361114113
WAug 20 · 12:00E. Mares331111113T. Kos197570
E. Mares10
WSep 22 · 09:30T. Kos1.57119491E. Mares2.2551111113WSep 22 · 07:00E. Mares1.8311113113J. Vales1.83551151WSep 22 · 06:00L. Jindrak1.67791381E. Mares2.10111111113LSep 21 · 16:58E. Mares2.001291291J. Zajicek1.73141110113WSep 21 · 16:00J. Zajicek1.801112961E. Mares1.9161411113LSep 21 · 15:00T. Postelt1.83116115123E. Mares1.83811511102LSep 21 · 14:30E. Mares2.101113117132V. Koubek1.67315411153WSep 20 · 13:30J. Cernik1.55111411862E. Mares2.30816911113WSep 20 · 12:30J. Medek1.50610111172E. Mares2.50111259113WSep 20 · 11:30E. Mares2.751111113D. Opanasiuk1.406790
T. Kos10
LSep 22 · 09:30T. Kos1.57119491E. Mares2.2551111113WSep 22 · 07:30T. Kos1.44111112113L. Jindrak2.63491461WSep 22 · 06:30J. Vales1.5771160T. Kos2.251113113WSep 13 · 20:59T. Kos1.308111011113M. Zahradka3.4011712882LSep 13 · 20:00E. Mares2.2011124113T. Kos1.618101191WSep 13 · 19:00T. Postelt2.5031111782T. Kos1.50119911113WSep 13 · 18:30T. Kos1.281113811113M. Zahradka3.5081511752LSep 13 · 17:29T. Kos2.25211771J. Cernik1.5711911113WSep 13 · 16:30L. Zeman3.00212241T. Kos1.36111011113WSep 13 · 15:30T. Kos1.30111112113M. Zahradka3.40561471
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