TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 21Finished
Michal Derco
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11911711131012114
Josef Toth
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:54 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJosef Toth to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Derco above · Josef Toth below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 99 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Josef Toth at 54.0%
99 points played in total.
H2H Michal Derco 3–4 Josef Toth Michal Derco has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Toth beat Derco 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:54What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Derco
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Derco 1263 vs Toth 1207
Derco
Correct
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derco 60% vs Toth 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derco 40% vs Toth 60%
Toth
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Derco +1 · Toth -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Derco) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Toth form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerco 1.61 / Toth 2.20
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Derco)-0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13168524
Derco1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 20 of 31
Up 2–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it84% 16 of 19
Toth2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog51% won 26 of 51
Down 0–1, comes back25% 6 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeDerco3wins
AwayToth4wins
2 of 7 to a deciderToth leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDercon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayToth80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Derco2Toth5n = 7Toth took 5 of 7
S2Derco4Toth3n = 7Derco took 4 of 7
S3Derco2Toth5n = 7Toth took 5 of 7
S4Derco3Toth1n = 4Derco took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricDercoTothD − TBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match37.936.7+1.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDercoTothBasisWin rate · lifetime47 / 87 vs 80 / 17354%46.2%47 / 87 vs 80 / 173Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DercoDerco 1.61/Toth 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.3%
Derco · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Derco won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 21 · 07:30M. Derco4010111091J. Toth4112612113
WJul 30 · 09:30M. Derco331111113J. Toth237790
WJul 30 · 07:30M. Derco4211128113J. Toth296101121
LJul 9 · 06:30M. Derco248970J. Toth331111113
LJun 11 · 12:00M. Derco51981211112J. Toth511111106133
WMay 7 · 12:30M. Derco46811511113J. Toth4011911452
LMar 20 · 11:00M. Derco2967160J. Toth401111183
M. Derco10
WSep 21 · 08:00M. Derco1.7311312113A. Kanak2.004111051LSep 21 · 07:30J. Toth2.7512612113M. Derco1.4010111091WSep 21 · 06:00M. Derco1.401111113Z. Luksa2.755950LSep 14 · 08:58M. Derco1.67118881V. Rybar2.1091111113WSep 14 · 08:30V. Rybar1.80711651M. Derco1.9111911113LSep 14 · 07:30M. Derco2.0011481162M. Levicky1.73911119113LSep 14 · 06:30M. Kaspar1.7311129113M. Derco2.005101191WAug 20 · 21:14M. Derco2.0281111113T. Navrat1.70118461LAug 20 · 20:30M. Derco2.63111191342M. Blaha1.44881115113LAug 20 · 19:00M. Derco1.83118121192T. Navrat1.831311106113
J. Toth10
LSep 21 · 08:30Z. Luksa1.531112113J. Toth2.3871090WSep 21 · 07:30J. Toth2.7512612113M. Derco1.4010111091WSep 21 · 06:30A. Kanak1.7399111182J. Toth2.00111195113WSep 18 · 13:00J. Toth1.67118118113I. Kolenciak2.1061171182LSep 18 · 12:00A. Kanak1.831911109113J. Toth1.83177121162LSep 18 · 11:00I. Palmi1.8351111123J. Toth1.831185101WSep 18 · 10:30J. Toth2.001111113I. Kolenciak1.739930WSep 9 · 13:30I. Kolenciak1.6166111362J. Toth2.201111511113WSep 9 · 12:30J. Toth2.101110911123I. Palmi1.67612118102LSep 9 · 11:00J. Toth1.9181191142I. Kolenciak1.80115117113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.