TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Tomas Ogrocki
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1121210114––––
Radomir Benesz
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:42 and never touched — 57.2% is still 57.2%
Graded at full timeTomas Ogrocki to win
57.2%
57.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Ogrocki above · Radomir Benesz below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 50 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Tomas Ogrocki at 57.2%
50 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Ogrocki 15–10 Radomir Benesz Radomir Benesz has won 10 of their 25 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Ogrocki beat Benesz 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:42What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Ogrocki
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-10 in 25
Ogrocki
Correct
gap of 5 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ogrocki 1405 vs Benesz 1313
Ogrocki
Correct
both rated, 92 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ogrocki 80% vs Benesz 60%
Ogrocki
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ogrocki 80% vs Benesz 60%
Ogrocki
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ogrocki +4 · Benesz +1
Ogrocki
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Ogrocki) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benesz form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOgrocki 1.44 / Benesz 2.63
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Ogrocki)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13166501
Ogrocki1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 57 of 99
Up 2–0, closes it90% 27 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it70% 39 of 56
Benesz2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 30 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back21% 9 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOgrocki6wins
AwayBenesz4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderOgrocki leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOgrocki80%4 of 5
AwayBenesz60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ogrocki5Benesz5n = 10split evenly
S2Ogrocki8Benesz2n = 10Ogrocki took 8 of 10
S3Ogrocki5Benesz5n = 10split evenly
S4Ogrocki4Benesz3n = 7Ogrocki took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricOgrockiBeneszO − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.334.2+4.1per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOgrockiBeneszBasisWin rate · lifetime228 / 486 vs 82 / 21746.9%37.8%228 / 486 vs 82 / 217Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OgrockiOgrocki 1.44/Benesz 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Ogrocki · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Ogrocki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 19:10T. Ogrocki331111113R. Benesz228590
WSep 17 · 21:10T. Ogrocki331111113R. Benesz152490
LSep 17 · 18:10T. Ogrocki331131091R. Benesz4171112113
WSep 15 · 15:10T. Ogrocki45121111113R. Benesz371091351
WJun 20 · 20:10T. Ogrocki371511113R. Benesz2413560
LJun 18 · 20:10T. Ogrocki30411871R. Benesz3611311113
WJun 16 · 20:15T. Ogrocki559111113113R. Benesz47111351172
WJun 11 · 20:45T. Ogrocki45111111123R. Benesz361376101
LJun 11 · 17:45T. Ogrocki32711681R. Benesz4211911113
LJun 5 · 20:39T. Ogrocki4051181152R. Benesz42113116113
T. Ogrocki10
WSep 20 · 19:40J. Vanous1.9191111472T. Ogrocki1.80117911113WSep 20 · 19:10R. Benesz2.388590T. Ogrocki1.531111113WSep 20 · 18:10T. Ogrocki1.53911511113P. Jokiel2.3811511772WSep 19 · 16:45O. Skvor2.105930T. Ogrocki1.671111113LSep 19 · 16:15O. Skvor1.5391111113T. Ogrocki2.38119951WSep 19 · 15:15T. Ogrocki1.83661111113M. Janik1.8311117772LSep 19 · 13:45A. Drozd1.57114116143T. Ogrocki2.25511911122WSep 17 · 21:10R. Benesz2.102490T. Ogrocki1.671111113WSep 17 · 19:40P. Jokiel2.107101151T. Ogrocki1.6711127113WSep 17 · 19:10M. Dolezal2.10912991T. Ogrocki1.67111011113
R. Benesz10
WSep 20 · 20:10P. Jokiel1.8011571132R. Benesz1.91911118113LSep 20 · 19:10R. Benesz2.388590T. Ogrocki1.531111113WSep 20 · 17:40J. Vanous1.61781181R. Benesz2.2011114113LSep 17 · 21:10R. Benesz2.102490T. Ogrocki1.671111113WSep 17 · 20:10R. Benesz1.8371411113M. Dolezal1.831112251WSep 17 · 18:40P. Jokiel1.61751131R. Benesz2.2011119113WSep 17 · 18:10T. Ogrocki1.531131091R. Benesz2.3871112113WSep 15 · 16:40P. Chlad1.57851111102R. Benesz2.25111166123LSep 15 · 16:10P. Chlad1.6791111113R. Benesz2.10116891LSep 15 · 15:10R. Benesz2.201091351T. Ogrocki1.61121111113
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