TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Ivan Jemelka
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611121091115131210
Adam Strelec
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:34 and never touched — 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeAdam Strelec to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Jemelka above · Adam Strelec below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 15-13
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 109 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Adam Strelec at 56.8%
109 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Jemelka 3–3 Adam Strelec Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:34What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Jemelka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jemelka 1446 vs Strelec 1439
Jemelka
Correct
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jemelka 60% vs Strelec 80%
Strelec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jemelka 60% vs Strelec 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jemelka -1 · Strelec -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jemelka) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strelec form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJemelka 1.73 / Strelec 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jemelka)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13166429
Jemelka1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 19)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite50% won 19 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it82% 9 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it74% 14 of 19
Strelec2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 15)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 34 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back24% 10 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeJemelka3wins
AwayStrelec3wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJemelkan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayStrelec75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jemelka2Strelec4n = 6Strelec took 4 of 6
S2Jemelka4Strelec2n = 6Jemelka took 4 of 6
S3Jemelka2Strelec4n = 6Strelec took 4 of 6
S4Jemelka3Strelec2n = 5Jemelka took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricJemelkaStrelecJ − SBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match39.737.7+2.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJemelkaStrelecBasisWin rate · lifetime62 / 126 vs 118 / 23649.2%50%62 / 126 vs 118 / 236Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JemelkaJemelka 1.73/Strelec 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jemelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jemelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 21 · 06:10I. Jemelka54612915123A. Strelec5511101113102
WSep 15 · 09:13I. Jemelka4111118113A. Strelec29821181
LSep 15 · 07:40I. Jemelka2228120A. Strelec361111143
WAug 14 · 12:44I. Jemelka4011117113A. Strelec29461181
LAug 14 · 10:15I. Jemelka38991191A. Strelec3911116113
LAug 1 · 11:45I. Jemelka4361111782A. Strelec38112311113
I. Jemelka10
LSep 21 · 07:10J. Matus2.2511111113I. Jemelka1.57911571LSep 19 · 17:04I. Jemelka1.6145111192P. Chvojka2.20111197113WSep 19 · 15:40I. Jemelka1.91111198113J. Jnr1.8059111192LSep 19 · 14:40I. Jemelka1.8012111041P. Sturma1.9114412113WSep 19 · 13:40I. Jemelka1.731112123P. Chvojka2.00310100WSep 15 · 09:13A. Strelec2.63821181I. Jemelka1.4411118113LSep 15 · 07:40I. Jemelka1.7328120A. Strelec2.001111143WSep 15 · 06:40I. Jemelka1.611111113L. Snr2.208680WSep 15 · 05:40I. Jemelka1.531181413113J. Matus2.38811121592WSep 12 · 20:49I. Jemelka2.00591113113J. Jnr1.73111151192
A. Strelec10
WSep 21 · 06:40J. Sindler1.7381171172A. Strelec2.00117114113LSep 15 · 09:13A. Strelec2.63821181I. Jemelka1.4411118113WSep 15 · 07:40I. Jemelka1.7328120A. Strelec2.001111143WSep 15 · 07:10J. Matus1.833411101A. Strelec1.8311119123WSep 15 · 06:10A. Strelec2.001111123L. Snr1.7354100WSep 14 · 09:33J. Matus1.91111071172A. Strelec1.80212115113WSep 14 · 07:40J. Sindler1.737990A. Strelec2.001111113WSep 14 · 07:10P. Sturma2.3811118942A. Strelec1.53681111113LSep 14 · 06:10A. Strelec1.80118125112J. Matus1.915111011133LSep 9 · 09:20A. Strelec1.77371171J. Matus1.8711116113
Upcoming Matches
I. Jemelka
Nothing scheduled
A. Strelec
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