TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Radek Fnukal
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116711811118119
Jan Lovl
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:42 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeRadek Fnukal to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Fnukal above · Jan Lovl below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 93 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Radek Fnukal at 62.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Radek Fnukal 15–8 Jan Lovl Jan Lovl has won 8 of their 23 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Fnukal beat Lovl 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:42What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Fnukal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-8 in 23
Fnukal
Correct
gap of 7 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fnukal 1610 vs Lovl 1549
Fnukal
Correct
both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fnukal 80% vs Lovl 40%
Fnukal
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fnukal 60% vs Lovl 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fnukal +4 · Lovl +2
Fnukal
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Fnukal)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fnukal form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFnukal 1.53 / Lovl 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Fnukal)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13165873
Fnukal1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite48% won 22 of 46
Up 2–0, closes it83% 10 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it52% 11 of 21
Lovl2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog37% won 23 of 63
Down 0–1, comes back22% 9 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFnukal6wins
AwayLovl4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderFnukal leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFnukal66.7%4 of 6
AwayLovl50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fnukal6Lovl4n = 10Fnukal took 6 of 10
S2Fnukal4Lovl6n = 10Lovl took 6 of 10
S3Fnukal5Lovl5n = 10split evenly
S4Fnukal4Lovl4n = 8split evenly
S5Fnukal4Lovl2n = 6Fnukal took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricFnukalLovlF − LBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match44.441.8+2.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFnukalLovlBasisWin rate · lifetime69 / 137 vs 180 / 34850.4%51.7%69 / 137 vs 180 / 348Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.337.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FnukalFnukal 1.53/Lovl 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62%
Fnukal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Fnukal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 14:35R. Fnukal56881114153J. Lovl531111612132
WSep 11 · 11:35R. Fnukal46111473113J. Lovl47612111172
LAug 23 · 14:35R. Fnukal551191113112J. Lovl51811415133
LAug 14 · 11:35R. Fnukal407111481J. Lovl4011216113
WAug 9 · 16:05R. Fnukal4315116113J. Lovl401371191
WAug 2 · 17:34R. Fnukal48871111113J. Lovl4611119962
WAug 2 · 14:35R. Fnukal47124119113J. Lovl45101151182
LJul 19 · 15:35R. Fnukal52111291192J. Lovl50614118113
WJun 28 · 11:35R. Fnukal331111113J. Lovl124260
LJun 5 · 13:15R. Fnukal2461080J. Lovl341112113
R. Fnukal10
WSep 20 · 16:35R. Fnukal1.61116912113J. Martin2.20811111072WSep 20 · 15:05D. Hons2.2510111181R. Fnukal1.5712139113WSep 20 · 14:35J. Lovl2.501111612132R. Fnukal1.50881114153WSep 11 · 13:10R. Fitl1.67111011992R. Fnukal2.10912711113LSep 11 · 12:05R. Neterda2.20771111113R. Fnukal1.6111114882WSep 11 · 11:35J. Lovl2.63612111172R. Fnukal1.44111473113LSep 11 · 10:35R. Fnukal1.836113111R. Fitl1.8311611133LSep 7 · 17:40R. Fitl1.911261111123R. Fnukal1.801011813102LSep 7 · 16:05R. Fnukal1.7316611562R. Fitl2.001411411113WSep 7 · 15:05R. Fnukal1.671111113D. Hons2.107870
J. Lovl10
WSep 20 · 16:05D. Hons2.008940J. Lovl1.731111113WSep 20 · 15:35J. Martin2.7562100J. Lovl1.401111123LSep 20 · 14:35J. Lovl2.501111612132R. Fnukal1.50881114153LSep 19 · 09:03J. Lovl1.25711712132M. Flesar3.751191110153LSep 19 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.8311511113J. Lovl1.83911251LSep 19 · 07:35D. Hons2.2091111113J. Lovl1.61116681WSep 19 · 06:35J. Lovl1.251112113M. Flesar3.7581080LSep 13 · 17:34J. Lovl2.63811781R. Pokorny1.4411211113WSep 13 · 16:05J. Lovl2.7511101210113R. Pokorny1.40812101272LSep 11 · 11:35J. Lovl2.63612111172R. Fnukal1.44111473113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.