TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Michal Durda vs Marcin Kowalczyk 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Michal Durda
Home
1.12
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111165112220116
Marcin Kowalczyk
Away
6.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:43 and never touched — 66.0% is still 66.0%
Graded at full timeMarcin Kowalczyk to win
66.0%
66.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
112 points played in total.
Set by set
9111165112220116
H2H Michal Durda 0–1 Marcin Kowalczyk Michal Durda has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 7h before this match
Kowalczyk beat Durda 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:43What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.12 (84%)
Durda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Durda 1323 vs Kowalczyk 1266
Durda
Correct
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Durda 40% vs Kowalczyk 20%
Durda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Durda 30% vs Kowalczyk 50%
Kowalczyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Durda -3 · Kowalczyk +1
Durda
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 84% — Strong (leans Durda) · live re-read · sealed at 34% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Durda form (40%) is below what odds imply (89%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDurda 1.12 / Kowalczyk 6.00
Signal prob.84% / 16%
Edge (Durda)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13164802
Durda1.12
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite74% won 191 of 257
Up 2–0, closes it96% 96 of 100
Up 1–0, closes it89% 136 of 153
Kowalczyk6.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 144 of 327
Down 0–1, comes back23% 36 of 159
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeDurda0wins
AwayKowalczyk1wins
Kowalczyk leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricDurdaKowalczykD − KBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match38.039.0−1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDurdaKowalczykBasisWin rate · lifetime204 / 277 vs 742 / 150673.7%49.3%204 / 277 vs 742 / 1506Avg sets wonper match2.52.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.737.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DurdaDurda 1.12/Kowalczyk 6.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
84.3%
Durda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Durda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 21 · 15:25M. Durda381111971M. Kowalczyk3941311113
M. Durda10
LSep 22 · 24:35M. Durda1.15112741J. Przewlocki5.0081111113LSep 21 · 23:45K. Marchlewski—1111113M. Durda—7550LSep 21 · 21:55A. Myszewski1.501111123M. Durda2.4357100LSep 21 · 19:40M. Durda1.0998111392P. Strus6.751111911113LSep 21 · 18:30M. Durda1.157550J. Przewlocki5.001111113WSep 21 · 17:20M. Durda1.07411611123K. Marchlewski7.75119119102WSep 21 · 16:15A. Myszewski1.7511761172M. Durda1.95911117113LSep 21 · 15:25M. Durda2.051111971M. Kowalczyk1.6541311113LSep 19 · 14:40M. Durda1.0411118552M. Zwolinski6.00961111113LSep 19 · 13:05M. Durda1.03116101152W. Suchecki6.20611126113
M. Kowalczyk10
WSep 21 · 23:20A. Myszewski1.608740M. Kowalczyk2.201111113WSep 21 · 22:15M. Kowalczyk2.051111113J. Przewlocki1.668660LSep 21 · 21:05K. Marchlewski2.101111113M. Kowalczyk1.656880LSep 21 · 20:30A. Myszewski1.701111123M. Kowalczyk2.0067100LSep 21 · 19:20M. Kowalczyk1.619870K. Marchlewski2.151111113LSep 21 · 18:10P. Strus2.051111113M. Kowalczyk1.666920LSep 21 · 16:55J. Przewlocki1.731111123M. Kowalczyk1.9877100WSep 21 · 15:25M. Durda2.051111971M. Kowalczyk1.6541311113WSep 17 · 19:40M. Kowalczyk1.76111196113B. Mrugala1.8877111152WSep 17 · 18:30M. Kowalczyk1.641111113K. Golaszewski2.044970
Upcoming Matches
M. Durda
M. Kowalczyk
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