TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13147431
Played Sep 17Finished
Marcin Kowalczyk
Home
1.76
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117117911611115
Bartlomiej Mrugala
Away
1.88
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:04 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeBartlomiej Mrugala to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
89 points played in total.
Set by set
117117911611115
H2H Marcin Kowalczyk 31–30 Bartlomiej Mrugala Bartlomiej Mrugala has won 30 of their 61 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:04What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.76 (52%)
Kowalczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
31-30 in 61
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kowalczyk 1271 vs Mrugala 1277
Mrugala
Wrong
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kowalczyk 60% vs Mrugala 20%
Kowalczyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kowalczyk 50% vs Mrugala 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kowalczyk +2 · Mrugala -4
Mrugala
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kowalczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mrugala form (20%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKowalczyk 1.76 / Mrugala 1.88
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kowalczyk)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13147431
Kowalczyk1.76
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest67%takes the first set · 6 of 9
As favourite56% won 91 of 164
Up 2–0, closes it96% 49 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it74% 81 of 110
Mrugala1.88
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 112 of 254
Down 0–1, comes back22% 28 of 130
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKowalczyk5wins
AwayMrugala5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKowalczyk62.5%5 of 8
AwayMrugalan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kowalczyk8Mrugala2n = 10Kowalczyk took 8 of 10
S2Kowalczyk4Mrugala6n = 10Mrugala took 6 of 10
S3Kowalczyk5Mrugala5n = 10split evenly
S4Kowalczyk3Mrugala6n = 9Mrugala took 6 of 9
S5Kowalczyk3Mrugala3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKowalczykMrugalaK − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match42.539.4+3.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKowalczykMrugalaBasisWin rate · lifetime743 / 1517 vs 308 / 67149%45.9%743 / 1517 vs 308 / 671Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KowalczykKowalczyk 1.76/Mrugala 1.88
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kowalczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kowalczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 18:30M. Kowalczyk43111165102B. Mrugala50881111123
WAug 20 · 21:30M. Kowalczyk331111113B. Mrugala269980
WAug 20 · 18:30M. Kowalczyk47111159113B. Mrugala4079111122
WJul 28 · 21:30M. Kowalczyk4311129113B. Mrugala346101171
LJul 28 · 19:40M. Kowalczyk32118581B. Mrugala3521111113
LJul 27 · 15:25M. Kowalczyk35781191B. Mrugala3911116113
LJun 10 · 16:25M. Kowalczyk4711811982B. Mrugala40411311113
WJun 8 · 17:05M. Kowalczyk49118118113B. Mrugala4171161162
LJun 4 · 17:05M. Kowalczyk4494111192B. Mrugala49111188113
WJun 3 · 16:25M. Kowalczyk521110911113B. Mrugala4041211762
M. Kowalczyk10
WSep 17 · 18:30M. Kowalczyk1.641111113K. Golaszewski2.044970WSep 17 · 17:20M. Kowalczyk2.13111128113M. Trela1.5968111192LSep 17 · 16:15J. Lamperski1.65511711113M. Kowalczyk2.0511711982WSep 17 · 15:25M. Kowalczyk1.901112143J. Rolak1.80610120LSep 16 · 19:40M. Kowalczyk1.7511113742P. Strus1.85591111113LSep 16 · 18:30M. Kowalczyk1.80111165102B. Mrugala1.80881111123WSep 16 · 17:20M. Kowalczyk1.8831111113W. Gluszek1.82118341LSep 16 · 16:15M. Trela1.723M. Kowalczyk2.000WSep 16 · 15:25M. Kowalczyk1.92121111123M. Skorski1.731475101LSep 16 · 24:35M. Kowalczyk1.9010111191D. Kotwica1.8012137113
B. Mrugala10
LSep 17 · 18:55J. Lamperski1.571311113B. Mrugala2.2011680LSep 17 · 18:10B. Mrugala1.836750J. Rolak1.801111113LSep 17 · 16:35B. Mrugala2.25891191M. Trela1.5211114113LSep 17 · 15:50K. Golaszewski1.941111113B. Mrugala1.715870WSep 17 · 24:35K. Golaszewski1.9379111142B. Mrugala1.72111187113WSep 16 · 22:55W. Gluszek1.8811670B. Mrugala1.821311113WSep 16 · 22:15M. Trela1.56691191B. Mrugala2.1811117113LSep 16 · 21:30M. Skorski1.8311117123B. Mrugala1.887811101LSep 16 · 20:05B. Mrugala1.9010111191W. Gluszek1.8012139113WSep 16 · 18:30M. Kowalczyk1.80111165102B. Mrugala1.80881111123
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