TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Marcin Kowalczyk
Home
1.61
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911811711––––
Kacper Marchlewski
Away
2.15
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:17 and never touched — 54.6% is still 54.6%
Graded at full timeMarcin Kowalczyk to win
54.6%
54.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
57 points played in total.
Set by set
911811711––––
H2H Marcin Kowalczyk 9–11 Kacper Marchlewski Marcin Kowalczyk has won 9 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:17What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (57%)
Kowalczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-11 in 20
Marchlewski
Correct
gap of 2 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kowalczyk 1275 vs Marchlewski 1219
Kowalczyk
Wrong
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kowalczyk 60% vs Marchlewski 40%
Kowalczyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kowalczyk 50% vs Marchlewski 30%
Kowalczyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kowalczyk -2 · Marchlewski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Kowalczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKowalczyk 1.61 / Marchlewski 2.15
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Kowalczyk)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13168353
Kowalczyk1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 91 of 162
Up 2–0, closes it96% 49 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it74% 81 of 110
Marchlewski2.15
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 42 of 124
Down 0–1, comes back13% 9 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKowalczyk8wins
AwayMarchlewski2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKowalczyk leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKowalczyk100%6 of 6
AwayMarchlewski50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kowalczyk6Marchlewski4n = 10Kowalczyk took 6 of 10
S2Kowalczyk5Marchlewski5n = 10split evenly
S3Kowalczyk8Marchlewski2n = 10Kowalczyk took 8 of 10
S4Kowalczyk3Marchlewski1n = 4Kowalczyk took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKowalczykMarchlewskiK − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.428.0+7.4per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKowalczykMarchlewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime740 / 1501 vs 144 / 33549.3%43%740 / 1501 vs 144 / 335Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KowalczykKowalczyk 1.61/Marchlewski 2.15
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.6%
Kowalczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Marchlewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 22:35M. Kowalczyk361411113K. Marchlewski2512940
WSep 2 · 15:25M. Kowalczyk331111113K. Marchlewski162950
WAug 6 · 16:15M. Kowalczyk3741111113K. Marchlewski26115551
WAug 5 · 15:25M. Kowalczyk331111113K. Marchlewski187470
WJul 29 · 17:20M. Kowalczyk4211911113K. Marchlewski34811871
WJul 29 · 24:10M. Kowalczyk48871111113K. Marchlewski4111117392
LJul 28 · 17:20M. Kowalczyk237790K. Marchlewski331111113
WJul 27 · 16:15M. Kowalczyk47116118113K. Marchlewski3321161132
WJul 17 · 18:30M. Kowalczyk331111113K. Marchlewski216960
LSep 27 · 01:35M. Kowalczyk228770K. Marchlewski331111113
M. Kowalczyk10
LSep 21 · 18:10P. Strus2.051111113M. Kowalczyk1.666920LSep 21 · 16:55J. Przewlocki1.731111123M. Kowalczyk1.9877100WSep 21 · 15:25M. Durda2.051111971M. Kowalczyk1.6541311113WSep 17 · 19:40M. Kowalczyk1.76111196113B. Mrugala1.8877111152WSep 17 · 18:30M. Kowalczyk1.641111113K. Golaszewski2.044970WSep 17 · 17:20M. Kowalczyk2.13111128113M. Trela1.5968111192LSep 17 · 16:15J. Lamperski1.65511711113M. Kowalczyk2.0511711982WSep 17 · 15:25M. Kowalczyk1.901112143J. Rolak1.80610120LSep 16 · 19:40M. Kowalczyk1.7511113742P. Strus1.85591111113LSep 16 · 18:30M. Kowalczyk1.80111165102B. Mrugala1.80881111123
K. Marchlewski10
LSep 21 · 17:20M. Durda1.07411611123K. Marchlewski7.75119119102WSep 21 · 16:35P. Strus1.8013513732K. Marchlewski1.9111111111113LSep 21 · 15:00A. Myszewski1.551171013113K. Marchlewski2.25411121192WSep 13 · 23:20D. Kotwica1.5511812882K. Marchlewski2.207111011113LSep 13 · 22:35A. Linek1.3011118123K. Marchlewski3.108911101LSep 13 · 22:15K. Marchlewski3.3511781152K. Rudomina1.25811115113LSep 13 · 21:05R. Stapor1.311111113K. Marchlewski2.954880WSep 13 · 20:30K. Marchlewski2.2911811143D. Kotwica1.517116121LSep 13 · 18:55K. Marchlewski4.7513146982A. Wos1.1311121111113LSep 13 · 17:45K. Marchlewski3.359101151K. Rudomina1.2511129113
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