TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kacper Marchlewski vs Marcin Kowalczyk 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Kacper Marchlewski
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116118118––––
Marcin Kowalczyk
Away
1.65
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:36 and never touched — 54.6% is still 54.6%
Graded at full timeMarcin Kowalczyk to win
54.6%
54.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
55 points played in total.
Set by set
116118118––––
H2H Kacper Marchlewski 12–9 Marcin Kowalczyk Marcin Kowalczyk has won 9 of their 21 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Marchlewski beat Kowalczyk 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:36What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Kowalczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-9 in 21
Marchlewski
Correct
gap of 3 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marchlewski 1253 vs Kowalczyk 1246
Marchlewski
Correct
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marchlewski 60% vs Kowalczyk 20%
Marchlewski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marchlewski 50% vs Kowalczyk 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marchlewski +2 · Kowalczyk -4
Kowalczyk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Kowalczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kowalczyk form (20%) is below what odds imply (61%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarchlewski 2.10 / Kowalczyk 1.65
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Kowalczyk)-0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13168714
Marchlewski2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 42 of 124
Down 0–1, comes back13% 9 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 36
Kowalczyk1.65
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 91 of 162
Up 2–0, closes it96% 49 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it74% 81 of 110
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarchlewski2wins
AwayKowalczyk8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKowalczyk leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarchlewski50%2 of 4
AwayKowalczyk100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marchlewski4Kowalczyk6n = 10Kowalczyk took 6 of 10
S2Marchlewski5Kowalczyk5n = 10split evenly
S3Marchlewski2Kowalczyk8n = 10Kowalczyk took 8 of 10
S4Marchlewski1Kowalczyk3n = 4Kowalczyk took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarchlewskiKowalczykM − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match28.035.6−7.6per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarchlewskiKowalczykBasisWin rate · lifetime146 / 337 vs 740 / 150343.3%49.2%146 / 337 vs 740 / 1503Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KowalczykMarchlewski 2.10/Kowalczyk 1.65
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.6%
Kowalczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Marchlewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 19:20K. Marchlewski331111113M. Kowalczyk249870
LSep 2 · 22:35K. Marchlewski2512940M. Kowalczyk361411113
LSep 2 · 15:25K. Marchlewski162950M. Kowalczyk331111113
LAug 6 · 16:15K. Marchlewski26115551M. Kowalczyk3741111113
LAug 5 · 15:25K. Marchlewski187470M. Kowalczyk331111113
LJul 29 · 17:20K. Marchlewski34811871M. Kowalczyk4211911113
LJul 29 · 24:10K. Marchlewski4111117392M. Kowalczyk48871111113
WJul 28 · 17:20K. Marchlewski331111113M. Kowalczyk237790
LJul 27 · 16:15K. Marchlewski3321161132M. Kowalczyk47116118113
LJul 17 · 18:30K. Marchlewski216960M. Kowalczyk331111113
K. Marchlewski10
WSep 21 · 20:05J. Przewlocki1.5010470K. Marchlewski2.401211113WSep 21 · 19:20M. Kowalczyk1.619870K. Marchlewski2.151111113LSep 21 · 17:20M. Durda1.07411611123K. Marchlewski7.75119119102WSep 21 · 16:35P. Strus1.8013513732K. Marchlewski1.9111111111113LSep 21 · 15:00A. Myszewski1.551171013113K. Marchlewski2.25411121192WSep 13 · 23:20D. Kotwica1.5511812882K. Marchlewski2.207111011113LSep 13 · 22:35A. Linek1.3011118123K. Marchlewski3.108911101LSep 13 · 22:15K. Marchlewski3.3511781152K. Rudomina1.25811115113LSep 13 · 21:05R. Stapor1.311111113K. Marchlewski2.954880WSep 13 · 20:30K. Marchlewski2.2911811143D. Kotwica1.517116121
M. Kowalczyk10
LSep 21 · 20:30A. Myszewski1.701111123M. Kowalczyk2.0067100LSep 21 · 19:20M. Kowalczyk1.619870K. Marchlewski2.151111113LSep 21 · 18:10P. Strus2.051111113M. Kowalczyk1.666920LSep 21 · 16:55J. Przewlocki1.731111123M. Kowalczyk1.9877100WSep 21 · 15:25M. Durda2.051111971M. Kowalczyk1.6541311113WSep 17 · 19:40M. Kowalczyk1.76111196113B. Mrugala1.8877111152WSep 17 · 18:30M. Kowalczyk1.641111113K. Golaszewski2.044970WSep 17 · 17:20M. Kowalczyk2.13111128113M. Trela1.5968111192LSep 17 · 16:15J. Lamperski1.65511711113M. Kowalczyk2.0511711982WSep 17 · 15:25M. Kowalczyk1.901112143J. Rolak1.80610120
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