TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 21Finished
Pavel Varecha
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711211611––––
Michal Koral
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:13 and never touched — 68.6% is still 68.6%
Graded at full timeMichal Koral to win
68.6%
68.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Varecha above · Michal Koral below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 48 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Michal Koral at 68.6%
48 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Varecha 0–1 Michal Koral Pavel Varecha has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:13What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Koral
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Varecha 1350 vs Koral 1529
Koral
Correct
both rated, 179 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Varecha 20% vs Koral 80%
Koral
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Varecha 30% vs Koral 80%
Koral
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Varecha -1 · Koral +4
Koral
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Koral) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Varecha form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVarecha 2.75 / Koral 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Koral)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13164645
Varecha2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 32 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back26% 10 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 26
Koral1.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 44 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it76% 37 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeVarecha0wins
AwayKoral1wins
Koral leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricVarechaKoralV − KBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match21.033.0−12.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVarechaKoralBasisWin rate · lifetime108 / 227 vs 117 / 22247.6%52.7%108 / 227 vs 117 / 222Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoralVarecha 2.75/Koral 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.1%
Koral · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Koral won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 17 · 06:00P. Varecha219390M. Koral331111113
P. Varecha10
LSep 21 · 10:30I. Taichman1.831212113P. Varecha1.83101090WSep 17 · 08:58M. Kolek1.7310114141P. Varecha2.0012411163LSep 17 · 08:30P. Varecha1.6111612101M. Kolek2.2021114123LSep 17 · 07:00P. Varecha2.207540F. Zurek1.611111113LSep 17 · 06:00M. Koral1.671111113P. Varecha2.109390LSep 14 · 13:30M. Kowolowski1.4311611123P. Varecha2.606114101LSep 14 · 12:30P. Varecha2.3881160M. Kowolowski1.531113113LSep 14 · 11:00P. Varecha2.20115137162J. Stach1.617111111183WSep 14 · 10:00I. Taichman1.8312690P. Varecha1.831411113WSep 12 · 09:05P. Varecha2.3081115113F. Zurek1.551141371
M. Koral10
WSep 21 · 12:00M. Koral1.7311811113I. Taichman2.00711321WSep 21 · 10:00M. Koral1.44611114113F. Zurek2.6311841172WSep 20 · 17:30V. Bosak1.738530M. Koral2.001111113WSep 20 · 16:00M. Koral1.671111113M. Kowolowski2.103750WSep 20 · 15:30T. Kraninger2.381110111172M. Koral1.53812913113LSep 20 · 14:00M. Koral1.737570V. Bosak2.001111113WSep 17 · 13:30M. Koral1.351111113M. Kolek2.906470WSep 17 · 12:00E. Sionkala2.1071181142M. Koral1.67118117113WSep 17 · 11:00F. Zurek2.206980M. Koral1.611111113WSep 17 · 06:00M. Koral1.671111113P. Varecha2.109390
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