Lukas Krupnik Jr vs Martin Sobota 3-1

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT Cup

Played Sep 20Finished

Lukas Krupnik Jr

Home

1.62

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

1191171113114––

Martin Sobota

Away

2.20

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 2

How it is goingLukas Krupnik Jr above · Martin Sobota below

Set 1 · 11-9

Set 2 · 11-7

Set 3 · 11-13

Set 4 · 11-4

Point 77 set 4, 11-4

77 points played in total.

H2H Lukas Krupnik Jr 8–8 Martin Sobota Dead even across their 16 meetings.

Last 10 · 5–5Head to head

Same-day rematch · 1h before this match

Jr beat Sobota 3-0.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Jr)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Jr form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsJr 1.61 / Sobota 2.20

Signal prob.59% / 41%

Edge (Jr)+1.2pp

TT Cup · #13164300

Jr1.61

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As favourite56% won 76 of 136

Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29

Up 1–0, closes it76% 50 of 66

Sobota2.20

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog45% won 33 of 73

Down 0–1, comes back21% 7 of 34

Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeJr5wins

AwaySobota5wins

4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeJr100%4 of 4

AwaySobota83.3%5 of 6

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Jr4Sobota6n = 10Sobota took 6 of 10

S2Jr7Sobota3n = 10Jr took 7 of 10

S3Jr5Sobota5n = 10split evenly

S4Jr4Sobota5n = 9Sobota took 5 of 9

S5Jr2Sobota2n = 4split evenly

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away330%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricJrSobotaJ − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.939.5+2.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricJrSobotaBasisWin rate · lifetime242 / 455 vs 79 / 18153.2%43.7%242 / 455 vs 79 / 181Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.639.6per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Jr 1.61/Sobota 2.20

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

58.9%

Jr · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Jr won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

WSep 20 · 12:15L. Jr331111113M. Sobota238690

WSep 5 · 07:40L. Jr47113911133M. Sobota42211117112

WAug 11 · 14:15L. Jr4211812113M. Sobota272111041

LAug 8 · 16:10L. Jr335111071M. Sobota4311912113

WJul 26 · 09:19L. Jr5310111110113M. Sobota4512771272

LJul 26 · 06:15L. Jr51111111992M. Sobota46136511113

LJul 25 · 05:45L. Jr351011771M. Sobota4012611113

WJul 14 · 15:15L. Jr43111011113M. Sobota36912691

LJul 11 · 12:10L. Jr28411761M. Sobota4011711113

LJul 4 · 07:10L. Jr5410111011122M. Sobota53129126143

L. Jr10

WSep 20 · 12:15M. Sobota1.918690L. Jr1.801111113 LSep 20 · 11:15L. Jr2.001111111152F. Mandrysz1.73139139113 LSep 20 · 09:45P. Chvojka1.671111113L. Jr2.106580 WSep 16 · 12:48L. Jr1.531111113L. Zustina2.388670 LSep 16 · 12:15J. Sindler1.53111248113L. Jr2.38610111172 WSep 16 · 11:15L. Jr1.73111111113L. Zustina2.00139571 LSep 16 · 09:45M. Lorenc1.44111111113L. Jr2.63135881 LSep 14 · 13:04J. Sindler1.5013119113L. Jr2.501141181 LSep 14 · 11:40L. Jr2.25651161J. Sindler1.5711119113 WSep 14 · 10:40L. Jr1.67312411113P. Sturma2.10111011692

M. Sobota10

LSep 20 · 12:15M. Sobota1.918690L. Jr1.801111113 LSep 20 · 10:45P. Chvojka1.281111113M. Sobota3.504550 WSep 20 · 10:15F. Mandrysz2.0011811482M. Sobota1.73611711113 LSep 20 · 09:15M. Sobota2.10311110J. Sindler1.671113133 WSep 20 · 08:15F. Mandrysz1.735880M. Sobota2.001111113 LSep 20 · 07:15M. Sobota1.80126871J. Matus1.91101111113 WSep 20 · 05:45J. Sindler1.5781151192M. Sobota2.25118118113 LSep 12 · 16:45P. Chvojka1.301114113M. Sobota3.4061290 LSep 12 · 16:15M. Sobota2.3822140P. Chvojka1.531111163 LSep 12 · 14:45J. Jnr1.83611911113M. Sobota1.8311711362

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