TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Martin Sobota
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811611911––––
Lukas Krupnik Jr
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:36 and never touched — 54.2% is still 54.2%
Graded at full timeLukas Krupnik Jr to win
54.2%
54.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Sobota above · Lukas Krupnik Jr below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 56 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Lukas Krupnik Jr at 54.2%
56 points played in total.
H2H Martin Sobota 8–7 Lukas Krupnik Jr Lukas Krupnik Jr has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:36What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Jr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-7 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sobota 1336 vs Jr 1370
Jr
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobota 40% vs Jr 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobota 30% vs Jr 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobota -1 · Jr -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobota 1.91 / Jr 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jr)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13161265
Sobota1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 33 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back21% 7 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Jr1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite56% won 76 of 136
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it76% 50 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSobota6wins
AwayJr4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSobota leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSobota83.3%5 of 6
AwayJr75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sobota6Jr4n = 10Sobota took 6 of 10
S2Sobota4Jr6n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S3Sobota6Jr4n = 10Sobota took 6 of 10
S4Sobota6Jr4n = 10Sobota took 6 of 10
S5Sobota2Jr2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSobotaJrS − JBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.042.8−0.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobotaJrBasisWin rate · lifetime79 / 180 vs 241 / 45443.9%53.1%79 / 180 vs 241 / 454Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.740.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrSobota 1.91/Jr 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 07:40M. Sobota42211117112L. Jr47113911133
LAug 11 · 14:15M. Sobota272111041L. Jr4211812113
WAug 8 · 16:10M. Sobota4311912113L. Jr335111071
LJul 26 · 09:19M. Sobota4512771272L. Jr5310111110113
WJul 26 · 06:15M. Sobota46136511113L. Jr51111111992
WJul 25 · 05:45M. Sobota4012611113L. Jr351011771
LJul 14 · 15:15M. Sobota36912691L. Jr43111011113
WJul 11 · 12:10M. Sobota4011711113L. Jr28411761
WJul 4 · 07:10M. Sobota53129126143L. Jr5410111011122
WMay 20 · 13:40M. Sobota48141111123L. Jr421679101
M. Sobota10
LSep 20 · 12:39L. Jr1.61111111113M. Sobota2.20971341LSep 20 · 10:45P. Chvojka1.281111113M. Sobota3.504550WSep 20 · 10:15F. Mandrysz2.0011811482M. Sobota1.73611711113LSep 20 · 09:15M. Sobota2.10311110J. Sindler1.671113133WSep 20 · 08:15F. Mandrysz1.735880M. Sobota2.001111113LSep 20 · 07:15M. Sobota1.80126871J. Matus1.91101111113WSep 20 · 05:45J. Sindler1.5781151192M. Sobota2.25118118113LSep 12 · 16:45P. Chvojka1.301114113M. Sobota3.4061290LSep 12 · 16:15M. Sobota2.3822140P. Chvojka1.531111163LSep 12 · 14:45J. Jnr1.83611911113M. Sobota1.8311711362
L. Jr10
WSep 20 · 12:39L. Jr1.61111111113M. Sobota2.20971341LSep 20 · 11:15L. Jr2.001111111152F. Mandrysz1.73139139113LSep 20 · 09:45P. Chvojka1.671111113L. Jr2.106580WSep 16 · 12:48L. Jr1.531111113L. Zustina2.388670LSep 16 · 12:15J. Sindler1.53111248113L. Jr2.38610111172WSep 16 · 11:15L. Jr1.73111111113L. Zustina2.00139571LSep 16 · 09:45M. Lorenc1.44111111113L. Jr2.63135881LSep 14 · 13:04J. Sindler1.5013119113L. Jr2.501141181LSep 14 · 11:40L. Jr2.25651161J. Sindler1.5711119113WSep 14 · 10:40L. Jr1.67312411113P. Sturma2.10111011692
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