TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Martin Sobota
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
31111131113––––
Jaroslav Sindler
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:43 and never touched — 55.4% is still 55.4%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Sindler to win
55.4%
55.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Sobota above · Jaroslav Sindler below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 62 set 3, 11-13 — our read held Jaroslav Sindler at 55.4%
62 points played in total.
H2H Martin Sobota 10–14 Jaroslav Sindler Martin Sobota has won 10 of their 24 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:43What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Sindler
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-14 in 24
Sindler
Correct
gap of 4 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sobota 1331 vs Sindler 1496
Sindler
Correct
both rated, 164 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobota 40% vs Sindler 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobota 40% vs Sindler 70%
Sindler
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobota +1 · Sindler +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Sindler) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sindler form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobota 2.10 / Sindler 1.67
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Sindler)+3.6pp
TT Cup · #13163551
Sobota2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog45% won 33 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back21% 7 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Sindler1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite54% won 134 of 249
Up 2–0, closes it91% 48 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it69% 87 of 126
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSobota5wins
AwaySindler5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSobota57.1%4 of 7
AwaySindler66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sobota7Sindler3n = 10Sobota took 7 of 10
S2Sobota3Sindler7n = 10Sindler took 7 of 10
S3Sobota7Sindler3n = 10Sobota took 7 of 10
S4Sobota3Sindler6n = 9Sindler took 6 of 9
S5Sobota2Sindler2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSobotaSindlerSobota − SindlerBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.342.8−0.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobotaSindlerBasisWin rate · lifetime78 / 177 vs 417 / 80144.1%52.1%78 / 177 vs 417 / 801Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.940.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SindlerSobota 2.10/Sindler 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.4%
Sindler · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Sindler won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 05:45M. Sobota49118118113J. Sindler4481151192
WSep 6 · 17:18M. Sobota4211911113J. Sindler34711791
LSep 6 · 15:45M. Sobota56151291372J. Sindler6013101115113
LAug 9 · 07:10M. Sobota345711111J. Sindler4411119133
LJul 11 · 12:40M. Sobota26113661J. Sindler4071111113
LJul 11 · 10:40M. Sobota371161191J. Sindler4381113113
WJun 21 · 16:50M. Sobota47128115113J. Sindler46101161182
WJun 21 · 13:45M. Sobota4291111113J. Sindler35117981
LJun 19 · 15:15M. Sobota578111117102J. Sindler571113615123
WJun 14 · 11:40M. Sobota331111113J. Sindler259970
M. Sobota10
LSep 20 · 10:45P. Chvojka1.281111113M. Sobota3.504550WSep 20 · 10:15F. Mandrysz2.0011811482M. Sobota1.73611711113WSep 20 · 08:15F. Mandrysz1.735880M. Sobota2.001111113LSep 20 · 07:15M. Sobota1.80126871J. Matus1.91101111113WSep 20 · 05:45J. Sindler1.5781151192M. Sobota2.25118118113LSep 12 · 16:45P. Chvojka1.301114113M. Sobota3.4061290LSep 12 · 16:15M. Sobota2.3822140P. Chvojka1.531111163LSep 12 · 14:45J. Jnr1.83611911113M. Sobota1.8311711362LSep 12 · 14:15P. Sturma1.731111113M. Sobota2.009860WSep 6 · 17:18J. Sindler1.67711791M. Sobota2.1011911113
J. Sindler10
WSep 20 · 07:45J. Sindler1.7311414133J. Matus2.0061112111WSep 20 · 06:45J. Sindler1.6111116123F. Mandrysz2.209811101LSep 20 · 05:45J. Sindler1.5781151192M. Sobota2.25118118113LSep 19 · 13:10J. Jnr2.087111111113J. Sindler1.5911981392LSep 19 · 11:40J. Sindler1.53117991J. Jnr2.3881111113WSep 19 · 10:40J. Sindler1.731511133P. Sturma2.00137110WSep 19 · 09:40J. Sindler1.61111211113F. Mandrysz2.20614581WSep 17 · 09:15J. Sindler1.60511136113P. Chlad2.20119111192WSep 17 · 08:10J. Sindler1.7311125113J. Matus2.006101151LSep 6 · 17:18J. Sindler1.67711791M. Sobota2.1011911113
Upcoming Matches
M. Sobota
J. Sindler
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