TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Lukas Pour
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1183111171113117
Radek Zeman
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:52 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeRadek Zeman to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Pour above · Radek Zeman below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 93 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Radek Zeman at 65.7%
93 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Pour 9–17 Radek Zeman Lukas Pour has won 9 of their 26 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Pour beat Zeman 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:52What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Zeman
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-17 in 26
Zeman
Wrong
gap of 8 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pour 1302 vs Zeman 1494
Zeman
Wrong
both rated, 192 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pour 60% vs Zeman 80%
Zeman
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pour 60% vs Zeman 90%
Zeman
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pour +2 · Zeman -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Zeman)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zeman form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPour 2.63 / Zeman 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Zeman)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13163713
Pour2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog24% won 6 of 25
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 13
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Zeman1.44
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite64% won 112 of 174
Up 2–0, closes it91% 70 of 77
Up 1–0, closes it80% 89 of 111
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePour4wins
AwayZeman6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderZeman leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePour33.3%1 of 3
AwayZeman57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pour3Zeman7n = 10Zeman took 7 of 10
S2Pour5Zeman5n = 10split evenly
S3Pour3Zeman7n = 10Zeman took 7 of 10
S4Pour3Zeman3n = 6split evenly
S5Pour2Zeman1n = 3Pour took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricPourZemanP − ZBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.237.4−2.2per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPourZemanBasisWin rate · lifetime70 / 158 vs 326 / 61644.3%52.9%70 / 158 vs 326 / 616Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZemanPour 2.63/Zeman 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Zeman · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Pour won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 08:20L. Pour4391111123R. Zeman321174101
LAug 2 · 11:20L. Pour3311301182R. Zeman50911118113
LJul 26 · 11:50L. Pour371110971R. Zeman4171211113
LApr 23 · 14:50L. Pour399118111R. Zeman4011511133
LApr 5 · 10:20L. Pour2661190R. Zeman351113113
LApr 4 · 10:55L. Pour2610880R. Zeman341211113
WMar 15 · 17:20L. Pour42411115113R. Zeman4511681192
LFeb 27 · 21:50L. Pour208750R. Zeman331111113
WJan 18 · 10:25L. Pour53911711153R. Zeman46117114132
WJan 18 · 07:20L. Pour331111113R. Zeman185490
L. Pour10
WSep 20 · 08:20R. Zeman1.421174101L. Pour2.6591111123WSep 20 · 07:50M. Nemec1.83511145132L. Pour1.831181211153LSep 20 · 06:50L. Pour1.40511951O. Sebek2.7511811113LSep 10 · 13:49M. Nemec1.67771113123L. Pour2.101111511102WSep 10 · 12:20O. Sebek2.006990L. Pour1.731111113LSep 10 · 11:50M. Kolbusovsky1.73101211113L. Pour2.001210781WSep 10 · 10:50L. Pour1.91111211123M. Nemec1.8061013101WAug 2 · 13:28L. Pour2.3812118113J. Rolik1.531061121WAug 2 · 12:20L. Pour1.831412116113J. Rolik1.83161091182LAug 2 · 11:20L. Pour3.0011301182R. Zeman1.36911118113
R. Zeman10
LSep 20 · 08:20R. Zeman1.421174101L. Pour2.6591111123WSep 20 · 07:20R. Zeman1.3311119113O. Sebek3.00491161WSep 20 · 06:20R. Zeman1.41131111113M. Nemec2.60155381WSep 18 · 17:54R. Zeman2.20119311113P. Cibik1.6191111792WSep 18 · 16:50R. Zeman1.361113133M. Nemec3.00811110WSep 18 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky5.003690R. Zeman1.141111113WSep 18 · 14:50P. Cibik1.44611951R. Zeman2.6311911113WSep 15 · 21:50R. Zeman2.651111113J. Mach1.426480WSep 15 · 20:50M. Dlask2.104640R. Zeman1.671111113WAug 2 · 11:20L. Pour3.0011301182R. Zeman1.36911118113
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