TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Oleh Maksymkiv
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171195111311––
Vsevolod Kheresko
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:56 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleh Maksymkiv to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Maksymkiv above · Vsevolod Kheresko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 78 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Oleh Maksymkiv at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Maksymkiv 26–10 Vsevolod Kheresko Vsevolod Kheresko has won 10 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:56What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Maksymkiv
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-10 in 36
Maksymkiv
Correct
gap of 16 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maksymkiv 1209 vs Kheresko 1327
Kheresko
Wrong
both rated, 118 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maksymkiv 60% vs Kheresko 80%
Kheresko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maksymkiv 50% vs Kheresko 90%
Kheresko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maksymkiv +1 · Kheresko +3
Kheresko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kheresko) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kheresko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaksymkiv 1.80 / Kheresko 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kheresko)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13161859
Maksymkiv1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite69% won 119 of 173
Up 2–0, closes it92% 55 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it78% 80 of 102
Kheresko1.91
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog37% won 56 of 150
Down 0–1, comes back23% 19 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaksymkiv7wins
AwayKheresko3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMaksymkiv leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaksymkiv75%3 of 4
AwayKheresko33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maksymkiv4Kheresko6n = 10Kheresko took 6 of 10
S2Maksymkiv5Kheresko5n = 10split evenly
S3Maksymkiv6Kheresko4n = 10Maksymkiv took 6 of 10
S4Maksymkiv5Kheresko3n = 8Maksymkiv took 5 of 8
S5Maksymkiv3Kheresko1n = 4Maksymkiv took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaksymkivKhereskoM − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.240.5−0.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaksymkivKhereskoBasisWin rate · lifetime386 / 744 vs 227 / 44251.9%51.4%386 / 744 vs 227 / 442Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KhereskoMaksymkiv 1.80/Kheresko 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kheresko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Maksymkiv won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 15:55O. Maksymkiv4411116882V. Kheresko51991111113
LSep 7 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv2310940V. Kheresko341211113
WSep 6 · 17:25O. Maksymkiv4713711163V. Kheresko4411118141
WSep 2 · 07:55O. Maksymkiv44911112113V. Kheresko4411871172
WAug 19 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv3811124113V. Kheresko388101191
WAug 10 · 11:25O. Maksymkiv4181111113V. Kheresko34117791
WAug 1 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv43111011113V. Kheresko32812571
WJul 26 · 14:25O. Maksymkiv44311118113V. Kheresko4111921182
LJul 14 · 13:25O. Maksymkiv2310670V. Kheresko341211113
WJul 9 · 04:25O. Maksymkiv557111511113V. Kheresko53111313792
O. Maksymkiv10
WSep 20 · 16:25V. Salivonchyk1.91741181O. Maksymkiv1.8011119113LSep 20 · 15:25O. Maksymkiv1.4471110111I. Fokin2.6311712133WSep 20 · 14:28O. Maslovskyi4.4078121132O. Maksymkiv1.151111109113WSep 20 · 12:55O. Maksymkiv2.751113119113M. Treschetka1.4091561182LSep 17 · 18:25V. Hel1.8311119113O. Maksymkiv1.83891161LSep 17 · 17:25I. Fokin2.63111111113O. Maksymkiv1.44134361LSep 17 · 15:55V. Kheresko2.00991111113O. Maksymkiv1.7311116882WSep 17 · 13:55O. Melnik1.30159110O. Maksymkiv3.401711133LSep 17 · 11:55M. Treschetka1.401111113O. Maksymkiv2.754840WSep 16 · 11:25V. Hel1.808101171O. Maksymkiv1.9111125113
V. Kheresko10
WSep 20 · 17:25I. Fokin3.7511340V. Kheresko1.251311113WSep 20 · 15:55O. Maslovskyi3.2591181192V. Kheresko1.33119115113WSep 20 · 13:55M. Treschetka2.5011128962V. Kheresko1.50710111193LSep 20 · 11:55V. Salivonchyk2.20111179113V. Kheresko1.6197111182WSep 18 · 10:55M. Vivatenko1.835880V. Kheresko1.831111113WSep 18 · 09:55I. Fokin2.75712261V. Kheresko1.40111011113WSep 18 · 08:25H. Oliynyk1.501196101V. Kheresko2.5061111123WSep 18 · 06:25O. Maslovskyi2.63101050V. Kheresko1.441212113WSep 18 · 04:25M. Treschetka2.257570V. Kheresko1.571111113WSep 17 · 15:55V. Kheresko2.00991111113O. Maksymkiv1.7311116882
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