TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Andrii Kotyk
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118117118––––
Ruslan Lazebnyi
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:42 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeAndrii Kotyk to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Kotyk above · Ruslan Lazebnyi below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 56 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Andrii Kotyk at 58.5%
56 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Kotyk 2–0 Ruslan Lazebnyi Ruslan Lazebnyi has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:42What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kotyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kotyk 1667 vs Lazebnyi 1585
Kotyk
Correct
both rated, 83 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kotyk 80% vs Lazebnyi 20%
Kotyk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kotyk 90% vs Lazebnyi 50%
Kotyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kotyk -1 · Lazebnyi -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kotyk) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lazebnyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKotyk 1.80 / Lazebnyi 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kotyk)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13161242
Kotyk1.80
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite63% won 62 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it97% 31 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it85% 41 of 48
Lazebnyi1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 18 of 53
Down 0–1, comes back18% 6 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKotyk2wins
AwayLazebnyi0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderKotyk leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricKotykLazebnyiK − LBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match39.536.5+3.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKotykLazebnyiBasisWin rate · lifetime168 / 353 vs 71 / 14547.6%49%168 / 353 vs 71 / 145Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.638.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KotykKotyk 1.80/Lazebnyi 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kotyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kotyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 2 · 08:35A. Kotyk331111113R. Lazebnyi258980
WAug 1 · 18:05A. Kotyk46513116113R. Lazebnyi48111171182
A. Kotyk10
LSep 20 · 07:05A. Kotyk1.3381020O. Mitla3.251112113WSep 20 · 05:05A. Kotyk1.531211113O. Napirko2.3810560WAug 30 · 10:35A. Kotyk1.5011114113V. Vlasenko2.50761181WAug 30 · 09:05A. Kotyk1.801111113O. Hura1.919750WAug 30 · 07:35A. Kotyk1.531113113Y. Shmyndra2.3851170WAug 30 · 06:05A. Kotyk1.401111143M. Smyrnov2.7516120WAug 30 · 04:35A. Kotyk1.401113113O. Mitla2.7591170WAug 29 · 18:05Y. Shmyndra2.108870A. Kotyk1.671111113WAug 29 · 17:05A. Kotyk1.4411119103O. Mitla2.63441181WAug 29 · 16:05A. Kotyk1.501111113M. Smyrnov2.505590
R. Lazebnyi10
LSep 20 · 06:35A. Shypilov3.25116138113R. Lazebnyi1.33611111172LSep 20 · 04:35N. Kovalchuk1.61114118113R. Lazebnyi2.2071151162WSep 19 · 18:35V. Vlasenko2.25611681R. Lazebnyi1.5711811113LSep 19 · 17:35N. Kovalchuk2.6371111113R. Lazebnyi1.44114661LSep 19 · 16:05V. Boyko2.201111912103R. Lazebnyi1.6179111482WSep 19 · 14:05O. Napirko1.911211101082R. Lazebnyi1.801081212103WSep 19 · 12:05A. Shypilov2.754750R. Lazebnyi1.401111113LSep 18 · 03:15R. Lazebnyi1.675690O. Napirko2.101111113WSep 18 · 01:15O. Mitla2.757118101R. Lazebnyi1.4011611123WSep 17 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.636980R. Lazebnyi1.441111113
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