TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155840
Played Sep 19Finished
Nazar Kovalchuk
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711114116116––
Ruslan Lazebnyi
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:07 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeNazar Kovalchuk to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingNazar Kovalchuk above · Ruslan Lazebnyi below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 67 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Nazar Kovalchuk at 57.0%
67 points played in total.
H2H Nazar Kovalchuk 14–8 Ruslan Lazebnyi Ruslan Lazebnyi has won 8 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:07What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kovalchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-8 in 22
Kovalchuk
Correct
gap of 6 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1639 vs Lazebnyi 1619
Kovalchuk
Correct
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 20% vs Lazebnyi 60%
Lazebnyi
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 50% vs Lazebnyi 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk +1 · Lazebnyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Kovalchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lazebnyi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 1.67 / Lazebnyi 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13155840
Kovalchuk1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite58% won 156 of 271
Up 2–0, closes it94% 59 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it73% 104 of 143
Lazebnyi2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 18 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back18% 6 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk7wins
AwayLazebnyi3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk85.7%6 of 7
AwayLazebnyi66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk7Lazebnyi3n = 10Kovalchuk took 7 of 10
S2Kovalchuk4Lazebnyi6n = 10Lazebnyi took 6 of 10
S3Kovalchuk4Lazebnyi6n = 10Lazebnyi took 6 of 10
S4Kovalchuk4Lazebnyi2n = 6Kovalchuk took 4 of 6
S5Kovalchuk3Lazebnyi0n = 3Kovalchuk took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukLazebnyiK − LBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.436.6+0.8per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukLazebnyiBasisWin rate · lifetime383 / 744 vs 70 / 14151.5%49.7%383 / 744 vs 70 / 141Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukKovalchuk 1.67/Lazebnyi 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 22:15N. Kovalchuk47126711113R. Lazebnyi47101111872
WSep 17 · 01:45N. Kovalchuk44651111113R. Lazebnyi4311118672
WSep 16 · 03:15N. Kovalchuk341111123R. Lazebnyi2697100
WSep 12 · 11:35N. Kovalchuk421615113R. Lazebnyi32141350
LSep 11 · 18:05N. Kovalchuk228680R. Lazebnyi331111113
WSep 5 · 11:05N. Kovalchuk49111159133R. Lazebnyi40431111112
LSep 4 · 12:05N. Kovalchuk331110751R. Lazebnyi4391211113
LAug 31 · 20:15N. Kovalchuk198290R. Lazebnyi331111113
WAug 29 · 06:35N. Kovalchuk4211119113R. Lazebnyi33671191
WAug 28 · 17:35N. Kovalchuk4211613123R. Lazebnyi3641111101
N. Kovalchuk10
WSep 19 · 15:35V. Vlasenko2.251111861N. Kovalchuk1.5791311113LSep 19 · 13:35A. Shypilov2.1011911103N. Kovalchuk1.67711891LSep 19 · 12:35V. Boyko2.5012118113N. Kovalchuk1.501071191LSep 18 · 02:45V. Vlasenko2.50121135113N. Kovalchuk1.50107111182LSep 18 · 01:45O. Napirko2.5011311113N. Kovalchuk1.50511751LSep 18 · 24:15O. Mitla3.2511811113N. Kovalchuk1.33511871WSep 17 · 22:15R. Lazebnyi2.20101111872N. Kovalchuk1.61126711113WSep 17 · 20:15A. Shypilov2.105550N. Kovalchuk1.671111113WSep 17 · 03:15S. Berezynskyi2.251110114132N. Kovalchuk1.57412811153WSep 17 · 01:45N. Kovalchuk1.57651111113R. Lazebnyi2.2511118672
R. Lazebnyi10
WSep 19 · 18:35V. Vlasenko2.25611681R. Lazebnyi1.5711811113LSep 19 · 16:05V. Boyko2.201111912103R. Lazebnyi1.6179111482WSep 19 · 14:05O. Napirko1.911211101082R. Lazebnyi1.801081212103WSep 19 · 12:05A. Shypilov2.754750R. Lazebnyi1.401111113LSep 18 · 03:15R. Lazebnyi1.675690O. Napirko2.101111113WSep 18 · 01:15O. Mitla2.757118101R. Lazebnyi1.4011611123WSep 17 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.636980R. Lazebnyi1.441111113LSep 17 · 22:15R. Lazebnyi2.20101111872N. Kovalchuk1.61126711113WSep 17 · 21:15V. Vlasenko2.208111171R. Lazebnyi1.6111813113LSep 17 · 01:45N. Kovalchuk1.57651111113R. Lazebnyi2.2511118672
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.