TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155420
Played Sep 19Finished
Valerii Vlasenko
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1191113811611––
Nazar Kovalchuk
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:50 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeNazar Kovalchuk to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Vlasenko above · Nazar Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 80 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Nazar Kovalchuk at 62.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Vlasenko 19–25 Nazar Kovalchuk Valerii Vlasenko has won 19 of their 44 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:50What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kovalchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-25 in 44
Kovalchuk
Correct
gap of 6 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vlasenko 1537 vs Kovalchuk 1634
Kovalchuk
Correct
both rated, 97 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vlasenko 60% vs Kovalchuk 0%
Vlasenko
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vlasenko 60% vs Kovalchuk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vlasenko -1 · Kovalchuk -5
Kovalchuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Kovalchuk) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (0%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVlasenko 2.25 / Kovalchuk 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13155420
Vlasenko2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 126 of 307
Down 0–1, comes back22% 34 of 156
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 85
Kovalchuk1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite58% won 156 of 271
Up 2–0, closes it94% 59 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it73% 104 of 143
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVlasenko4wins
AwayKovalchuk6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVlasenko60%3 of 5
AwayKovalchuk80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vlasenko5Kovalchuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Vlasenko7Kovalchuk3n = 10Vlasenko took 7 of 10
S3Vlasenko3Kovalchuk7n = 10Kovalchuk took 7 of 10
S4Vlasenko5Kovalchuk5n = 10split evenly
S5Vlasenko1Kovalchuk3n = 4Kovalchuk took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVlasenkoKovalchukV − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.441.7−2.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVlasenkoKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime407 / 919 vs 382 / 74344.3%51.4%407 / 919 vs 382 / 743Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukVlasenko 2.25/Kovalchuk 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 02:45V. Vlasenko42121135113N. Kovalchuk47107111182
WSep 15 · 21:15V. Vlasenko3841112113N. Kovalchuk351181061
WSep 6 · 07:05V. Vlasenko4414136113N. Kovalchuk3812111141
LAug 31 · 21:45V. Vlasenko28871121N. Kovalchuk3911116113
LAug 27 · 01:15V. Vlasenko4151171172N. Kovalchuk44113118113
LAug 26 · 01:15V. Vlasenko48911111072N. Kovalchuk51118912113
WAug 25 · 01:15V. Vlasenko4416125113N. Kovalchuk4314101181
LAug 18 · 01:15V. Vlasenko331191031N. Kovalchuk4171112113
LAug 9 · 08:05V. Vlasenko4491191142N. Kovalchuk42116113113
LAug 7 · 24:15V. Vlasenko32117681N. Kovalchuk3741111113
V. Vlasenko10
LSep 19 · 16:35A. Shypilov1.91111410793V. Vlasenko1.80712121162LSep 19 · 14:35V. Boyko1.57111114103V. Vlasenko2.251391251WSep 19 · 13:05V. Vlasenko1.831111123O. Napirko1.8347100WSep 18 · 02:45V. Vlasenko2.50121135113N. Kovalchuk1.50107111182WSep 18 · 24:45A. Shypilov1.9111911792V. Vlasenko1.80511911113LSep 17 · 23:45V. Vlasenko1.8399111272O. Napirko1.831111910113WSep 17 · 22:45O. Mitla1.8011610101V. Vlasenko1.9191112123LSep 17 · 21:15V. Vlasenko2.208111171R. Lazebnyi1.6111813113LSep 16 · 02:45V. Vlasenko1.8311511872O. Napirko1.83911511113WSep 16 · 24:45A. Shypilov2.101191171V. Vlasenko1.6791113113
N. Kovalchuk10
LSep 19 · 13:35A. Shypilov2.1011911103N. Kovalchuk1.67711891LSep 19 · 12:35V. Boyko2.5012118113N. Kovalchuk1.501071191LSep 18 · 02:45V. Vlasenko2.50121135113N. Kovalchuk1.50107111182LSep 18 · 01:45O. Napirko2.5011311113N. Kovalchuk1.50511751LSep 18 · 24:15O. Mitla3.2511811113N. Kovalchuk1.33511871WSep 17 · 22:15R. Lazebnyi2.20101111872N. Kovalchuk1.61126711113WSep 17 · 20:15A. Shypilov2.105550N. Kovalchuk1.671111113WSep 17 · 03:15S. Berezynskyi2.251110114132N. Kovalchuk1.57412811153WSep 17 · 01:45N. Kovalchuk1.57651111113R. Lazebnyi2.2511118672WSep 16 · 23:45O. Hura2.10114111182N. Kovalchuk1.67711913113
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