TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142937
Played Sep 18Finished
Oleksii Mitla
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115811118117––
Nazar Kovalchuk
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:38 and never touched — 75.3% is still 75.3%
Graded at full timeNazar Kovalchuk to win
75.3%
75.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksii Mitla above · Nazar Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 72 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Nazar Kovalchuk at 75.3%
72 points played in total.
H2H Oleksii Mitla 13–33 Nazar Kovalchuk Oleksii Mitla has won 13 of their 46 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:38What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Kovalchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-33 in 46
Kovalchuk
Wrong
gap of 20 in 46, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mitla 1483 vs Kovalchuk 1703
Kovalchuk
Wrong
both rated, 220 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mitla 40% vs Kovalchuk 100%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mitla 50% vs Kovalchuk 80%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mitla -2 · Kovalchuk +5
Kovalchuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Kovalchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMitla 3.25 / Kovalchuk 1.33
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13142937
Mitla3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 125 of 322
Down 0–1, comes back25% 51 of 204
Down 0–2, comes back11% 13 of 121
Kovalchuk1.33
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 158 of 271
Up 2–0, closes it94% 60 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it73% 106 of 145
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMitla2wins
AwayKovalchuk8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMitla66.7%2 of 3
AwayKovalchuk100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mitla3Kovalchuk7n = 10Kovalchuk took 7 of 10
S2Mitla6Kovalchuk4n = 10Mitla took 6 of 10
S3Mitla4Kovalchuk6n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S4Mitla0Kovalchuk6n = 6Kovalchuk took 6 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMitlaKovalchukM − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.639.8−6.2per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMitlaKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime344 / 792 vs 385 / 74343.4%51.8%344 / 792 vs 385 / 743Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukMitla 3.25/Kovalchuk 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75.3%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mitla won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 20:45O. Mitla401613113N. Kovalchuk32141170
LSep 16 · 01:15O. Mitla236980N. Kovalchuk331111113
LSep 6 · 05:05O. Mitla26611451N. Kovalchuk3711411113
LAug 27 · 03:15O. Mitla24411631N. Kovalchuk4011711113
LAug 24 · 21:15O. Mitla347611101N. Kovalchuk4111117123
WAug 20 · 01:15O. Mitla351113113N. Kovalchuk2781180
LAug 17 · 21:15O. Mitla2471250N. Kovalchuk361114113
LAug 5 · 21:45O. Mitla438151191N. Kovalchuk4811179113
LAug 4 · 21:15O. Mitla54111351962N. Kovalchuk628111121113
LAug 1 · 19:05O. Mitla339113101N. Kovalchuk4211811123
O. Mitla10
LSep 18 · 01:15O. Mitla2.757118101R. Lazebnyi1.4011611123LSep 17 · 22:45O. Mitla1.8011610101V. Vlasenko1.9191112123LSep 17 · 20:45O. Mitla3.2567120O. Napirko1.331111143WSep 17 · 02:15A. Shypilov1.91121181172O. Mitla1.80146119113WSep 17 · 01:15O. Mitla2.5011116133S. Berezynskyi1.509911111LSep 17 · 24:15O. Mitla3.00941191R. Lazebnyi1.3611115113WSep 16 · 22:45O. Mitla2.104111111113O. Hura1.6711913942WSep 16 · 20:45O. Mitla3.251613113N. Kovalchuk1.33141170LSep 16 · 02:15A. Shypilov1.838111011133O. Mitla1.83119128112LSep 16 · 01:15O. Mitla3.256980N. Kovalchuk1.331111113
N. Kovalchuk10
WSep 17 · 22:15R. Lazebnyi2.20101111872N. Kovalchuk1.61126711113WSep 17 · 20:15A. Shypilov2.105550N. Kovalchuk1.671111113WSep 17 · 03:15S. Berezynskyi2.251110114132N. Kovalchuk1.57412811153WSep 17 · 01:45N. Kovalchuk1.57651111113R. Lazebnyi2.2511118672WSep 16 · 23:45O. Hura2.10114111182N. Kovalchuk1.67711913113WSep 16 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.10812111172N. Kovalchuk1.67111487113LSep 16 · 20:45O. Mitla3.251613113N. Kovalchuk1.33141170WSep 16 · 03:15N. Kovalchuk1.671111123R. Lazebnyi2.1097100WSep 16 · 01:15O. Mitla3.256980N. Kovalchuk1.331111113LSep 15 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.2011511113N. Kovalchuk1.61611971
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