TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142925
Played Sep 17Finished
Anton Shypilov
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511511511––––
Nazar Kovalchuk
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:43 and never touched — 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeNazar Kovalchuk to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAnton Shypilov above · Nazar Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 48 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Nazar Kovalchuk at 58.6%
48 points played in total.
H2H Anton Shypilov 26–28 Nazar Kovalchuk Anton Shypilov has won 26 of their 54 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:43What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kovalchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-28 in 54
Kovalchuk
Correct
gap of 2 in 54, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shypilov 1469 vs Kovalchuk 1696
Kovalchuk
Correct
both rated, 227 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shypilov 20% vs Kovalchuk 80%
Kovalchuk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shypilov 30% vs Kovalchuk 70%
Kovalchuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shypilov -1 · Kovalchuk +4
Kovalchuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Kovalchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShypilov 2.10 / Kovalchuk 1.67
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13142925
Shypilov2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 159 of 358
Down 0–1, comes back29% 56 of 194
Down 0–2, comes back13% 13 of 101
Kovalchuk1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 158 of 271
Up 2–0, closes it94% 60 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it73% 106 of 145
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShypilov6wins
AwayKovalchuk4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderShypilov leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShypilov83.3%5 of 6
AwayKovalchuk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shypilov6Kovalchuk4n = 10Shypilov took 6 of 10
S2Shypilov3Kovalchuk7n = 10Kovalchuk took 7 of 10
S3Shypilov4Kovalchuk6n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S4Shypilov6Kovalchuk1n = 7Shypilov took 6 of 7
S5Shypilov3Kovalchuk2n = 5Shypilov took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricShypilovKovalchukS − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.140.10.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShypilovKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime368 / 810 vs 384 / 74245.4%51.8%368 / 810 vs 384 / 742Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukShypilov 2.10/Kovalchuk 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.6%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 20:15A. Shypilov155550N. Kovalchuk331111113
LSep 16 · 21:45A. Shypilov49812111172N. Kovalchuk51111487113
WSep 15 · 23:15A. Shypilov3811511113N. Kovalchuk33611971
WAug 31 · 23:15A. Shypilov5710121311113N. Kovalchuk51121015862
WAug 26 · 21:15A. Shypilov53148911113N. Kovalchuk48121111772
WAug 25 · 21:15A. Shypilov331111113N. Kovalchuk226880
LAug 20 · 03:15A. Shypilov43111161142N. Kovalchuk51713119113
LAug 9 · 05:05A. Shypilov247980N. Kovalchuk331111113
WAug 7 · 02:45A. Shypilov49131159113N. Kovalchuk46115111182
WAug 5 · 01:15A. Shypilov4011711113N. Kovalchuk33911671
A. Shypilov10
LSep 17 · 02:15A. Shypilov1.91121181172O. Mitla1.80146119113WSep 17 · 24:45A. Shypilov2.25117118113O. Hura1.5791171192LSep 16 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.631148121S. Berezynskyi1.4471111143LSep 16 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.10812111172N. Kovalchuk1.67111487113LSep 16 · 20:15A. Shypilov2.7513811682R. Lazebnyi1.401111611113WSep 16 · 02:15A. Shypilov1.838111011133O. Mitla1.83119128112LSep 16 · 24:45A. Shypilov2.101191171V. Vlasenko1.6791113113WSep 15 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.2011511113N. Kovalchuk1.61611971LSep 15 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.38411571R. Lazebnyi1.5311911113LSep 15 · 20:15A. Shypilov2.001111281O. Napirko1.7341311113
N. Kovalchuk10
WSep 17 · 03:15S. Berezynskyi2.251110114132N. Kovalchuk1.57412811153WSep 17 · 01:45N. Kovalchuk1.57651111113R. Lazebnyi2.2511118672WSep 16 · 23:45O. Hura2.10114111182N. Kovalchuk1.67711913113WSep 16 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.10812111172N. Kovalchuk1.67111487113LSep 16 · 20:45O. Mitla3.251613113N. Kovalchuk1.33141170WSep 16 · 03:15N. Kovalchuk1.671111123R. Lazebnyi2.1097100WSep 16 · 01:15O. Mitla3.256980N. Kovalchuk1.331111113LSep 15 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.2011511113N. Kovalchuk1.61611971WSep 15 · 22:15N. Kovalchuk1.5311114113O. Napirko2.38561171LSep 15 · 21:15V. Vlasenko2.3841112113N. Kovalchuk1.531181061
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