TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131377
Played Sep 15Finished
Anton Shypilov
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116511119117––
Nazar Kovalchuk
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:39 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeNazar Kovalchuk to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAnton Shypilov above · Nazar Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 71 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Nazar Kovalchuk at 56.5%
71 points played in total.
H2H Anton Shypilov 26–26 Nazar Kovalchuk Dead even across their 52 meetings.
Last 10 · 7–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:39What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kovalchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-26 in 52
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shypilov 1493 vs Kovalchuk 1662
Kovalchuk
Wrong
both rated, 170 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shypilov 0% vs Kovalchuk 60%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shypilov 30% vs Kovalchuk 70%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shypilov -5 · Kovalchuk +1
Shypilov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Kovalchuk) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shypilov form (0%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShypilov 2.20 / Kovalchuk 1.61
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13131377
Shypilov2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 160 of 353
Down 0–1, comes back30% 57 of 193
Down 0–2, comes back13% 13 of 101
Kovalchuk1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 153 of 263
Up 2–0, closes it94% 58 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it73% 104 of 142
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShypilov7wins
AwayKovalchuk3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderShypilov leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShypilov75%6 of 8
AwayKovalchukn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shypilov8Kovalchuk2n = 10Shypilov took 8 of 10
S2Shypilov4Kovalchuk6n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S3Shypilov4Kovalchuk6n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S4Shypilov5Kovalchuk3n = 8Shypilov took 5 of 8
S5Shypilov4Kovalchuk2n = 6Shypilov took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricShypilovKovalchukS − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match43.341.4+1.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShypilovKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime366 / 802 vs 377 / 73445.6%51.4%366 / 802 vs 377 / 734Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukShypilov 2.20/Kovalchuk 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.5%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Shypilov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 23:15A. Shypilov3811511113N. Kovalchuk33611971
WAug 31 · 23:15A. Shypilov5710121311113N. Kovalchuk51121015862
WAug 26 · 21:15A. Shypilov53148911113N. Kovalchuk48121111772
WAug 25 · 21:15A. Shypilov331111113N. Kovalchuk226880
LAug 20 · 03:15A. Shypilov43111161142N. Kovalchuk51713119113
LAug 9 · 05:05A. Shypilov247980N. Kovalchuk331111113
WAug 7 · 02:45A. Shypilov49131159113N. Kovalchuk46115111182
WAug 5 · 01:15A. Shypilov4011711113N. Kovalchuk33911671
WJul 26 · 05:05A. Shypilov48111295113N. Kovalchuk42310111172
LJul 25 · 17:05A. Shypilov48118125122N. Kovalchuk559111011143
A. Shypilov10
LSep 15 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.38411571R. Lazebnyi1.5311911113LSep 15 · 20:15A. Shypilov2.001111281O. Napirko1.7341311113LSep 13 · 11:05A. Shypilov1.911187101O. Mitla1.8061111123LSep 13 · 09:05V. Boyko2.101111113A. Shypilov1.673590LSep 13 · 08:05A. Shypilov2.108930S. Kalenyk1.671111113LSep 13 · 07:05O. Napirko1.809101112113A. Shypilov1.91111261092WSep 13 · 05:35A. Shypilov1.91811117113V. Vlasenko1.8011671182WSep 12 · 18:35A. Shypilov2.001112113M. Smyrnov1.7371050WSep 12 · 16:35V. Boyko2.1061251152A. Shypilov1.671110117113LSep 12 · 15:35A. Shypilov2.106580S. Kalenyk1.671111113
N. Kovalchuk10
WSep 15 · 22:15N. Kovalchuk1.5311114113O. Napirko2.38561171LSep 15 · 21:15V. Vlasenko2.3841112113N. Kovalchuk1.531181061WSep 12 · 11:35N. Kovalchuk1.801615113R. Lazebnyi1.91141350WSep 12 · 09:35Y. Kravets3.006580N. Kovalchuk1.361111113LSep 12 · 07:35V. Plishylo2.00141179113N. Kovalchuk1.73128111182WSep 12 · 06:35N. Kovalchuk1.731111113R. Haiseniuk2.005830WSep 12 · 05:35I. Romaniak1.8012690N. Kovalchuk1.911411113LSep 11 · 18:05N. Kovalchuk1.618680R. Lazebnyi2.201111113WSep 11 · 16:35N. Kovalchuk1.831111113R. Haiseniuk1.839660WSep 11 · 15:05N. Kovalchuk1.40111111113Y. Kravets2.75135441
Upcoming Matches
A. Shypilov
Sep 16 · 24:45A. Shypilov2.10V. Vlasenko1.67—Sep 16 · 02:15A. Shypilov1.83O. Mitla1.83—Sep 16 · 20:15A. Shypilov3.00R. Lazebnyi1.36—Sep 16 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.00N. Kovalchuk1.73—Sep 16 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.63S. Berezynskyi1.44—Sep 17 · 24:45A. Shypilov2.25O. Hura1.57—Sep 17 · 02:15A. Shypilov1.83O. Mitla1.83—
N. Kovalchuk
Sep 16 · 01:15N. Kovalchuk1.33O. Mitla3.25—Sep 16 · 03:15N. Kovalchuk1.67R. Lazebnyi2.10—Sep 16 · 20:45N. Kovalchuk1.33O. Mitla3.25—Sep 16 · 21:45N. Kovalchuk1.73A. Shypilov2.00—Sep 16 · 23:45N. Kovalchuk1.67O. Hura2.10—Sep 17 · 01:45N. Kovalchuk1.67R. Lazebnyi2.10—Sep 17 · 03:15N. Kovalchuk1.61S. Berezynskyi2.20—
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