TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136729
Played Sep 16Finished
Oleksii Mitla
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
16141311117––––
Nazar Kovalchuk
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:17 and never touched — 75.3% is still 75.3%
Graded at full timeNazar Kovalchuk to win
75.3%
75.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksii Mitla above · Nazar Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 16-14
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 72 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Nazar Kovalchuk at 75.3%
72 points played in total.
H2H Oleksii Mitla 12–30 Nazar Kovalchuk Oleksii Mitla has won 12 of their 42 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:17What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Kovalchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-30 in 42
Kovalchuk
Wrong
gap of 18 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mitla 1448 vs Kovalchuk 1680
Kovalchuk
Wrong
both rated, 231 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mitla 20% vs Kovalchuk 60%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mitla 30% vs Kovalchuk 70%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mitla -2 · Kovalchuk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Kovalchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMitla 3.25 / Kovalchuk 1.33
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13136729
Mitla3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 123 of 320
Down 0–1, comes back25% 50 of 203
Down 0–2, comes back11% 13 of 120
Kovalchuk1.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite58% won 154 of 266
Up 2–0, closes it94% 59 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it73% 105 of 144
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMitla3wins
AwayKovalchuk7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMitla33.3%1 of 3
AwayKovalchuk71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mitla3Kovalchuk7n = 10Kovalchuk took 7 of 10
S2Mitla5Kovalchuk5n = 10split evenly
S3Mitla6Kovalchuk4n = 10Mitla took 6 of 10
S4Mitla1Kovalchuk6n = 7Kovalchuk took 6 of 7
S5Mitla1Kovalchuk2n = 3Kovalchuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMitlaKovalchukM − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.043.3−4.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMitlaKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime340 / 785 vs 379 / 73643.3%51.5%340 / 785 vs 379 / 736Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukMitla 3.25/Kovalchuk 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75.3%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Mitla won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 24 · 21:15O. Mitla347611101N. Kovalchuk4111117123
WAug 20 · 01:15O. Mitla351113113N. Kovalchuk2781180
LAug 17 · 21:15O. Mitla2471250N. Kovalchuk361114113
LAug 5 · 21:45O. Mitla438151191N. Kovalchuk4811179113
LAug 4 · 21:15O. Mitla54111351962N. Kovalchuk628111121113
LAug 1 · 19:05O. Mitla339113101N. Kovalchuk4211811123
LJul 31 · 23:30O. Mitla45117111152N. Kovalchuk50811713113
WJul 26 · 06:05O. Mitla55713119153N. Kovalchuk541111811132
WJul 25 · 15:05O. Mitla4391111123N. Kovalchuk371197101
LJul 24 · 21:00O. Mitla2412750N. Kovalchuk361411113
O. Mitla10
LSep 16 · 02:15A. Shypilov1.838111011133O. Mitla1.83119128112LSep 16 · 01:15O. Mitla3.256980N. Kovalchuk1.331111113WSep 16 · 24:15O. Mitla3.4011127113O. Napirko1.309101181LSep 15 · 22:45O. Mitla1.83391291V. Vlasenko1.83111110113LSep 15 · 20:45O. Mitla2.63711471R. Lazebnyi1.4411611113WSep 13 · 11:05A. Shypilov1.911187101O. Mitla1.8061111123LSep 13 · 10:05S. Kalenyk1.531111113O. Mitla2.388570LSep 13 · 08:35O. Napirko1.30911119113O. Mitla3.4011791122LSep 13 · 06:35V. Vlasenko1.8011119113O. Mitla1.91551161WSep 13 · 04:35V. Boyko1.73851111102O. Mitla2.00111188123
N. Kovalchuk10
WSep 16 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.10812111172N. Kovalchuk1.67111487113WSep 16 · 03:15N. Kovalchuk1.671111123R. Lazebnyi2.1097100WSep 16 · 01:15O. Mitla3.256980N. Kovalchuk1.331111113LSep 15 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.2011511113N. Kovalchuk1.61611971WSep 15 · 22:15N. Kovalchuk1.5311114113O. Napirko2.38561171LSep 15 · 21:15V. Vlasenko2.3841112113N. Kovalchuk1.531181061WSep 12 · 11:35N. Kovalchuk1.801615113R. Lazebnyi1.91141350WSep 12 · 09:35Y. Kravets3.006580N. Kovalchuk1.361111113LSep 12 · 07:35V. Plishylo2.00141179113N. Kovalchuk1.73128111182WSep 12 · 06:35N. Kovalchuk1.731111113R. Haiseniuk2.005830
Upcoming Matches
O. Mitla
Sep 16 · 22:45O. Mitla2.10O. Hura1.67—Sep 17 · 24:15O. Mitla2.75R. Lazebnyi1.40—Sep 17 · 01:15O. Mitla2.50S. Berezynskyi1.50—Sep 17 · 02:15O. Mitla1.80A. Shypilov1.91—Sep 17 · 20:45O. Mitla3.25O. Napirko1.33—Sep 17 · 22:45O. Mitla1.83V. Vlasenko1.83—Sep 18 · 24:15O. Mitla3.25N. Kovalchuk1.33—Sep 18 · 01:15O. Mitla2.75R. Lazebnyi1.40—Sep 18 · 02:15O. Mitla1.80A. Shypilov1.91—
N. Kovalchuk
Sep 16 · 23:45N. Kovalchuk1.67O. Hura2.10—Sep 17 · 01:45N. Kovalchuk1.57R. Lazebnyi2.25—Sep 17 · 03:15N. Kovalchuk1.61S. Berezynskyi2.20—Sep 17 · 20:15N. Kovalchuk1.67A. Shypilov2.10—Sep 17 · 22:15N. Kovalchuk1.57R. Lazebnyi2.25—Sep 18 · 24:15N. Kovalchuk1.33O. Mitla3.25—Sep 18 · 01:45N. Kovalchuk1.50O. Napirko2.50—Sep 18 · 02:45N. Kovalchuk1.50V. Vlasenko2.50—
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