TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131387
Played Sep 15Finished
Oleksii Mitla
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
3119111210911––
Valerii Vlasenko
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:39 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeValerii Vlasenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksii Mitla above · Valerii Vlasenko below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 76 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Valerii Vlasenko at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Oleksii Mitla 39–40 Valerii Vlasenko Oleksii Mitla has won 39 of their 79 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 20:39What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Vlasenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
39-40 in 79
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mitla 1458 vs Vlasenko 1550
Vlasenko
Correct
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mitla 20% vs Vlasenko 80%
Vlasenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mitla 30% vs Vlasenko 60%
Vlasenko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mitla -1 · Vlasenko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vlasenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vlasenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMitla 1.83 / Vlasenko 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vlasenko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13131387
Mitla1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Vlasenko1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMitla4wins
AwayVlasenko6wins
7 of 10 to a deciderVlasenko leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMitla66.7%2 of 3
AwayVlasenko71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mitla3Vlasenko7n = 10Vlasenko took 7 of 10
S2Mitla4Vlasenko6n = 10Vlasenko took 6 of 10
S3Mitla8Vlasenko2n = 10Mitla took 8 of 10
S4Mitla3Vlasenko5n = 8Vlasenko took 5 of 8
S5Mitla3Vlasenko4n = 7Vlasenko took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMitlaVlasenkoM − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match43.345.7−2.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMitlaVlasenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime339 / 781 vs 409 / 92743.4%44.1%339 / 781 vs 409 / 927Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VlasenkoMitla 1.83/Vlasenko 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Vlasenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vlasenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 06:35O. Mitla27551161V. Vlasenko4211119113
WSep 11 · 20:00O. Mitla507111110113V. Vlasenko4811991272
LSep 10 · 24:15O. Mitla53109111582V. Vlasenko541211713113
WSep 9 · 24:15O. Mitla341111123V. Vlasenko2284100
LSep 6 · 08:05O. Mitla4113811452V. Vlasenko481111411113
WSep 5 · 01:00O. Mitla46126611113V. Vlasenko48101111792
LSep 3 · 01:15O. Mitla5511111310102V. Vlasenko521341112123
LAug 30 · 08:35O. Mitla47810111352V. Vlasenko531112811113
LAug 28 · 23:00O. Mitla2548130V. Vlasenko371111153
WAug 26 · 20:45O. Mitla559131110123V. Vlasenko531111912102
O. Mitla10
WSep 16 · 24:15O. Mitla3.4011127113O. Napirko1.309101181LSep 15 · 20:45O. Mitla2.63711471R. Lazebnyi1.4411611113WSep 13 · 11:05A. Shypilov1.911187101O. Mitla1.8061111123LSep 13 · 10:05S. Kalenyk1.531111113O. Mitla2.388570LSep 13 · 08:35O. Napirko1.30911119113O. Mitla3.4011791122LSep 13 · 06:35V. Vlasenko1.8011119113O. Mitla1.91551161WSep 13 · 04:35V. Boyko1.73851111102O. Mitla2.00111188123WSep 12 · 18:05V. Boyko1.572570O. Mitla2.251111113LSep 12 · 17:05O. Mitla3.2510750O. Napirko1.33121163LSep 12 · 16:05O. Mitla1.8311101481M. Smyrnov1.8351216113
V. Vlasenko10
WSep 16 · 24:45A. Shypilov2.101191171V. Vlasenko1.6791113113WSep 15 · 23:45V. Vlasenko2.38123119133R. Lazebnyi1.531011511112WSep 15 · 21:15V. Vlasenko2.3841112113N. Kovalchuk1.531181061WSep 13 · 11:35V. Vlasenko1.801111810113S. Kalenyk1.9186111262LSep 13 · 09:35O. Napirko1.8071112113V. Vlasenko1.911141081WSep 13 · 07:35V. Boyko1.671110791V. Vlasenko2.1071211113WSep 13 · 06:35V. Vlasenko1.8011119113O. Mitla1.91551161LSep 13 · 05:35A. Shypilov1.91811117113V. Vlasenko1.8011671182WSep 12 · 02:00V. Vlasenko1.67811118113A. Shypilov2.1011971152LSep 12 · 24:30V. Vlasenko2.2071311682V. Boyko1.611111811113
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