TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13137179
Played Sep 16Finished
Anton Shypilov
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111214118117711
Nazar Kovalchuk
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:56 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeNazar Kovalchuk to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAnton Shypilov above · Nazar Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 100 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Nazar Kovalchuk at 56.5%
100 points played in total.
H2H Anton Shypilov 26–26 Nazar Kovalchuk Dead even across their 52 meetings.
Last 10 · 7–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:56What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kovalchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-26 in 52
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shypilov 1485 vs Kovalchuk 1657
Kovalchuk
Correct
both rated, 172 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shypilov 40% vs Kovalchuk 60%
Kovalchuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shypilov 20% vs Kovalchuk 60%
Kovalchuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shypilov -1 · Kovalchuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Kovalchuk) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShypilov 2.10 / Kovalchuk 1.67
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13137179
Shypilov2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 161 of 357
Down 0–1, comes back29% 57 of 194
Down 0–2, comes back13% 13 of 101
Kovalchuk1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 154 of 266
Up 2–0, closes it94% 59 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it73% 105 of 144
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShypilov7wins
AwayKovalchuk3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderShypilov leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShypilov75%6 of 8
AwayKovalchukn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shypilov8Kovalchuk2n = 10Shypilov took 8 of 10
S2Shypilov4Kovalchuk6n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S3Shypilov4Kovalchuk6n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S4Shypilov5Kovalchuk3n = 8Shypilov took 5 of 8
S5Shypilov4Kovalchuk2n = 6Shypilov took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricShypilovKovalchukS − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match43.341.4+1.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShypilovKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime367 / 805 vs 379 / 73745.6%51.4%367 / 805 vs 379 / 737Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukShypilov 2.10/Kovalchuk 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.6%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 23:15A. Shypilov3811511113N. Kovalchuk33611971
WAug 31 · 23:15A. Shypilov5710121311113N. Kovalchuk51121015862
WAug 26 · 21:15A. Shypilov53148911113N. Kovalchuk48121111772
WAug 25 · 21:15A. Shypilov331111113N. Kovalchuk226880
LAug 20 · 03:15A. Shypilov43111161142N. Kovalchuk51713119113
LAug 9 · 05:05A. Shypilov247980N. Kovalchuk331111113
WAug 7 · 02:45A. Shypilov49131159113N. Kovalchuk46115111182
WAug 5 · 01:15A. Shypilov4011711113N. Kovalchuk33911671
WJul 26 · 05:05A. Shypilov48111295113N. Kovalchuk42310111172
LJul 25 · 17:05A. Shypilov48118125122N. Kovalchuk559111011143
A. Shypilov10
LSep 16 · 20:15A. Shypilov2.7513811682R. Lazebnyi1.401111611113WSep 16 · 02:15A. Shypilov1.838111011133O. Mitla1.83119128112LSep 16 · 24:45A. Shypilov2.101191171V. Vlasenko1.6791113113WSep 15 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.2011511113N. Kovalchuk1.61611971LSep 15 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.38411571R. Lazebnyi1.5311911113LSep 15 · 20:15A. Shypilov2.001111281O. Napirko1.7341311113LSep 13 · 11:05A. Shypilov1.911187101O. Mitla1.8061111123LSep 13 · 09:05V. Boyko2.101111113A. Shypilov1.673590LSep 13 · 08:05A. Shypilov2.108930S. Kalenyk1.671111113LSep 13 · 07:05O. Napirko1.809101112113A. Shypilov1.91111261092
N. Kovalchuk10
LSep 16 · 20:45O. Mitla3.251613113N. Kovalchuk1.33141170WSep 16 · 03:15N. Kovalchuk1.671111123R. Lazebnyi2.1097100WSep 16 · 01:15O. Mitla3.256980N. Kovalchuk1.331111113LSep 15 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.2011511113N. Kovalchuk1.61611971WSep 15 · 22:15N. Kovalchuk1.5311114113O. Napirko2.38561171LSep 15 · 21:15V. Vlasenko2.3841112113N. Kovalchuk1.531181061WSep 12 · 11:35N. Kovalchuk1.801615113R. Lazebnyi1.91141350WSep 12 · 09:35Y. Kravets3.006580N. Kovalchuk1.361111113LSep 12 · 07:35V. Plishylo2.00141179113N. Kovalchuk1.73128111182WSep 12 · 06:35N. Kovalchuk1.731111113R. Haiseniuk2.005830
Upcoming Matches
A. Shypilov
Sep 16 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.63S. Berezynskyi1.44—Sep 17 · 24:45A. Shypilov2.25O. Hura1.57—Sep 17 · 02:15A. Shypilov1.91O. Mitla1.80—Sep 17 · 20:15A. Shypilov2.10N. Kovalchuk1.67—Sep 17 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.00O. Napirko1.73—Sep 17 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.75R. Lazebnyi1.40—Sep 18 · 24:45A. Shypilov1.91V. Vlasenko1.80—Sep 18 · 02:15A. Shypilov1.91O. Mitla1.80—
N. Kovalchuk
Sep 16 · 23:45N. Kovalchuk1.67O. Hura2.10—Sep 17 · 01:45N. Kovalchuk1.57R. Lazebnyi2.25—Sep 17 · 03:15N. Kovalchuk1.57S. Berezynskyi2.25—Sep 17 · 20:15N. Kovalchuk1.67A. Shypilov2.10—Sep 17 · 22:15N. Kovalchuk1.57R. Lazebnyi2.25—Sep 18 · 24:15N. Kovalchuk1.33O. Mitla3.25—Sep 18 · 01:45N. Kovalchuk1.50O. Napirko2.50—Sep 18 · 02:45N. Kovalchuk1.50V. Vlasenko2.50—
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