TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155033
Played Sep 19Finished
Valerii Vlasenko
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1141171210––––
Oleh Napirko
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:13 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleh Napirko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingValerii Vlasenko above · Oleh Napirko below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 55 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Oleh Napirko at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Vlasenko 74–104 Oleh Napirko Valerii Vlasenko has won 74 of their 178 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:13What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Napirko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
74-104 in 178
Napirko
Wrong
gap of 30 in 178, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vlasenko 1576 vs Napirko 1628
Napirko
Wrong
both rated, 51 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vlasenko 60% vs Napirko 80%
Napirko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vlasenko 70% vs Napirko 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vlasenko +2 · Napirko +3
Napirko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Napirko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Napirko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVlasenko 1.83 / Napirko 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Napirko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13155033
Vlasenko1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 18)
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Napirko1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 18)
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVlasenko5wins
AwayNapirko5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVlasenko66.7%4 of 6
AwayNapirko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vlasenko6Napirko4n = 10Vlasenko took 6 of 10
S2Vlasenko3Napirko7n = 10Napirko took 7 of 10
S3Vlasenko7Napirko3n = 10Vlasenko took 7 of 10
S4Vlasenko6Napirko3n = 9Vlasenko took 6 of 9
S5Vlasenko1Napirko3n = 4Napirko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVlasenkoNapirkoV − NBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.042.2−1.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVlasenkoNapirkoBasisWin rate · lifetime409 / 922 vs 422 / 84844.4%49.8%409 / 922 vs 422 / 848Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NapirkoVlasenko 1.83/Napirko 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Napirko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Vlasenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 23:45V. Vlasenko4899111272O. Napirko521111910113
LSep 16 · 02:45V. Vlasenko4211511872O. Napirko47911511113
LSep 13 · 09:35V. Vlasenko331141081O. Napirko4171112113
LSep 8 · 22:45V. Vlasenko30851161O. Napirko4011117113
WSep 6 · 05:35V. Vlasenko4312119113O. Napirko351061181
WAug 27 · 02:15V. Vlasenko556121115113O. Napirko52111461382
WAug 25 · 02:15V. Vlasenko46121013113O. Napirko4210121191
WAug 18 · 02:15V. Vlasenko4111811113O. Napirko35811791
LAug 14 · 02:15V. Vlasenko3651141152O. Napirko50118119113
WAug 9 · 05:35V. Vlasenko361112133O. Napirko28710110
V. Vlasenko10
WSep 18 · 02:45V. Vlasenko2.50121135113N. Kovalchuk1.50107111182WSep 18 · 24:45A. Shypilov1.9111911792V. Vlasenko1.80511911113LSep 17 · 23:45V. Vlasenko1.8399111272O. Napirko1.831111910113WSep 17 · 22:45O. Mitla1.8011610101V. Vlasenko1.9191112123LSep 17 · 21:15V. Vlasenko2.208111171R. Lazebnyi1.6111813113LSep 16 · 02:45V. Vlasenko1.8311511872O. Napirko1.83911511113WSep 16 · 24:45A. Shypilov2.101191171V. Vlasenko1.6791113113WSep 15 · 23:45V. Vlasenko2.38123119133R. Lazebnyi1.531011511112WSep 15 · 22:45O. Mitla1.83391291V. Vlasenko1.83111110113WSep 15 · 21:15V. Vlasenko2.3841112113N. Kovalchuk1.531181061
O. Napirko10
LSep 19 · 14:05O. Napirko1.911211101082R. Lazebnyi1.801081212103WSep 18 · 03:15R. Lazebnyi1.675690O. Napirko2.101111113WSep 18 · 01:45O. Napirko2.5011311113N. Kovalchuk1.50511751WSep 17 · 23:45V. Vlasenko1.8399111272O. Napirko1.831111910113LSep 17 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.001211116113O. Napirko1.7314251192WSep 17 · 20:45O. Mitla3.2567120O. Napirko1.331111143WSep 16 · 02:45V. Vlasenko1.8311511872O. Napirko1.83911511113WSep 16 · 01:45R. Lazebnyi1.5737111192O. Napirko2.25111197113LSep 16 · 24:15O. Mitla3.4011127113O. Napirko1.309101181LSep 15 · 22:15N. Kovalchuk1.5311114113O. Napirko2.38561171
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