TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13156187
Played Sep 19Finished
Oleh Napirko
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
121011810121012810
Ruslan Lazebnyi
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:47 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleh Napirko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleh Napirko above · Ruslan Lazebnyi below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 8-10
Point 103 set 5, 8-10 — our read held Oleh Napirko at 54.0%
103 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Napirko 5–7 Ruslan Lazebnyi Oleh Napirko has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:47What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Lazebnyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-7 in 12
Lazebnyi
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Napirko 1620 vs Lazebnyi 1610
Napirko
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Napirko 60% vs Lazebnyi 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Napirko 60% vs Lazebnyi 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Napirko -1 · Lazebnyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lazebnyi) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNapirko 1.91 / Lazebnyi 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Lazebnyi)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13156187
Napirko1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 53 of 139
Down 0–1, comes back16% 11 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 39
Lazebnyi1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 42 of 73
Up 2–0, closes it91% 21 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it72% 31 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNapirko4wins
AwayLazebnyi6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLazebnyi leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNapirko50%3 of 6
AwayLazebnyi75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Napirko6Lazebnyi4n = 10Napirko took 6 of 10
S2Napirko5Lazebnyi5n = 10split evenly
S3Napirko3Lazebnyi7n = 10Lazebnyi took 7 of 10
S4Napirko2Lazebnyi5n = 7Lazebnyi took 5 of 7
S5Napirko2Lazebnyi2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNapirkoLazebnyiN − LBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.438.1−2.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNapirkoLazebnyiBasisWin rate · lifetime422 / 849 vs 69 / 13949.7%49.6%422 / 849 vs 69 / 139Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LazebnyiNapirko 1.91/Lazebnyi 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Lazebnyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Lazebnyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 03:15O. Napirko331111113R. Lazebnyi205690
WSep 16 · 01:45O. Napirko49111197113R. Lazebnyi4137111192
LSep 5 · 05:35O. Napirko4111281192R. Lazebnyi46611117113
LSep 4 · 17:35O. Napirko28611471R. Lazebnyi3611311113
LAug 29 · 05:35O. Napirko2697100R. Lazebnyi341111123
WAug 28 · 18:35O. Napirko495121110113R. Lazebnyi44111061252
WAug 24 · 21:45O. Napirko4111711123R. Lazebnyi359115101
LAug 17 · 20:15O. Napirko188820R. Lazebnyi331111113
LAug 15 · 05:35O. Napirko4011117562R. Lazebnyi49881111113
LAug 14 · 18:35O. Napirko29128451R. Lazebnyi43101111113
O. Napirko10
LSep 19 · 15:05A. Shypilov2.1081111123O. Napirko1.671197101LSep 19 · 13:05V. Vlasenko1.831111123O. Napirko1.8347100WSep 18 · 03:15R. Lazebnyi1.675690O. Napirko2.101111113WSep 18 · 01:45O. Napirko2.5011311113N. Kovalchuk1.50511751WSep 17 · 23:45V. Vlasenko1.8399111272O. Napirko1.831111910113LSep 17 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.001211116113O. Napirko1.7314251192WSep 17 · 20:45O. Mitla3.2567120O. Napirko1.331111143WSep 16 · 02:45V. Vlasenko1.8311511872O. Napirko1.83911511113WSep 16 · 01:45R. Lazebnyi1.5737111192O. Napirko2.25111197113LSep 16 · 24:15O. Mitla3.4011127113O. Napirko1.309101181
R. Lazebnyi10
WSep 19 · 12:05A. Shypilov2.754750R. Lazebnyi1.401111113LSep 18 · 03:15R. Lazebnyi1.675690O. Napirko2.101111113WSep 18 · 01:15O. Mitla2.757118101R. Lazebnyi1.4011611123WSep 17 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.636980R. Lazebnyi1.441111113LSep 17 · 22:15R. Lazebnyi2.20101111872N. Kovalchuk1.61126711113WSep 17 · 21:15V. Vlasenko2.208111171R. Lazebnyi1.6111813113LSep 17 · 02:45O. Hura1.80118113133R. Lazebnyi1.91711511112LSep 17 · 01:45N. Kovalchuk1.57651111113R. Lazebnyi2.2511118672WSep 17 · 24:15O. Mitla3.00941191R. Lazebnyi1.3611115113LSep 16 · 01:45R. Lazebnyi1.5737111192O. Napirko2.25111197113
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