TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13132134
Played Sep 16Finished
Valerii Vlasenko
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119511115811711
Oleh Napirko
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:14 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleh Napirko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Vlasenko above · Oleh Napirko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 89 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Oleh Napirko at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Vlasenko 74–102 Oleh Napirko Valerii Vlasenko has won 74 of their 176 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:14What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Napirko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
74-102 in 176
Napirko
Correct
gap of 28 in 176, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vlasenko 1580 vs Napirko 1568
Vlasenko
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vlasenko 100% vs Napirko 40%
Vlasenko
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vlasenko 80% vs Napirko 60%
Vlasenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vlasenko +5 · Napirko +1
Vlasenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vlasenko) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Napirko form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVlasenko 1.83 / Napirko 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vlasenko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13132134
Vlasenko1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Napirko1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVlasenko5wins
AwayNapirko5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVlasenko80%4 of 5
AwayNapirko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vlasenko5Napirko5n = 10split evenly
S2Vlasenko3Napirko7n = 10Napirko took 7 of 10
S3Vlasenko7Napirko3n = 10Vlasenko took 7 of 10
S4Vlasenko5Napirko4n = 9Vlasenko took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVlasenkoNapirkoV − NBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.340.3−2.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVlasenkoNapirkoBasisWin rate · lifetime412 / 930 vs 428 / 85444.3%50.1%412 / 930 vs 428 / 854Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VlasenkoVlasenko 1.83/Napirko 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vlasenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Napirko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 09:35V. Vlasenko331141081O. Napirko4171112113
LSep 8 · 22:45V. Vlasenko30851161O. Napirko4011117113
WSep 6 · 05:35V. Vlasenko4312119113O. Napirko351061181
WAug 27 · 02:15V. Vlasenko556121115113O. Napirko52111461382
WAug 25 · 02:15V. Vlasenko46121013113O. Napirko4210121191
WAug 18 · 02:15V. Vlasenko4111811113O. Napirko35811791
LAug 14 · 02:15V. Vlasenko3651141152O. Napirko50118119113
WAug 9 · 05:35V. Vlasenko361112133O. Napirko28710110
LAug 4 · 02:15V. Vlasenko36971191O. Napirko3911116113
LAug 2 · 05:35V. Vlasenko27541171O. Napirko4111118113
V. Vlasenko10
WSep 16 · 24:45A. Shypilov2.101191171V. Vlasenko1.6791113113WSep 15 · 23:45V. Vlasenko2.38123119133R. Lazebnyi1.531011511112WSep 15 · 22:45O. Mitla1.83391291V. Vlasenko1.83111110113WSep 15 · 21:15V. Vlasenko2.3841112113N. Kovalchuk1.531181061WSep 13 · 11:35V. Vlasenko1.801111810113S. Kalenyk1.9186111262LSep 13 · 09:35O. Napirko1.8071112113V. Vlasenko1.911141081WSep 13 · 07:35V. Boyko1.671110791V. Vlasenko2.1071211113WSep 13 · 06:35V. Vlasenko1.8011119113O. Mitla1.91551161LSep 13 · 05:35A. Shypilov1.91811117113V. Vlasenko1.8011671182WSep 12 · 02:00V. Vlasenko1.67811118113A. Shypilov2.1011971152
O. Napirko10
WSep 16 · 01:45R. Lazebnyi1.5737111192O. Napirko2.25111197113LSep 16 · 24:15O. Mitla3.4011127113O. Napirko1.309101181LSep 15 · 22:15N. Kovalchuk1.5311114113O. Napirko2.38561171WSep 15 · 20:15A. Shypilov2.001111281O. Napirko1.7341311113LSep 13 · 10:35V. Boyko2.254131011123O. Napirko1.571111128112WSep 13 · 09:35O. Napirko1.8071112113V. Vlasenko1.911141081WSep 13 · 08:35O. Napirko1.30911119113O. Mitla3.4011791122WSep 13 · 07:05O. Napirko1.809101112113A. Shypilov1.91111261092LSep 13 · 05:05O. Napirko1.73711341S. Kalenyk2.0011511113WSep 12 · 19:05O. Napirko1.911111113S. Kalenyk1.809870
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