TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Anton Shypilov
Home
3.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1166111311811117
Ruslan Lazebnyi
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:05 and never touched — 75.3% is still 75.3%
Graded at full timeRuslan Lazebnyi to win
75.3%
75.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAnton Shypilov above · Ruslan Lazebnyi below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 95 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Ruslan Lazebnyi at 75.3%
95 points played in total.
H2H Anton Shypilov 3–7 Ruslan Lazebnyi Anton Shypilov has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:05What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Lazebnyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-7 in 10
Lazebnyi
Wrong
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shypilov 1506 vs Lazebnyi 1585
Lazebnyi
Wrong
both rated, 79 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shypilov 80% vs Lazebnyi 40%
Shypilov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shypilov 50% vs Lazebnyi 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Shypilov +1 · Lazebnyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Lazebnyi) · live re-read · sealed at 75% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lazebnyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShypilov 3.25 / Lazebnyi 1.33
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Lazebnyi)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13161567
Shypilov3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 160 of 360
Down 0–1, comes back29% 57 of 195
Down 0–2, comes back13% 13 of 102
Lazebnyi1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 45 of 77
Up 2–0, closes it92% 22 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it73% 33 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShypilov3wins
AwayLazebnyi7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLazebnyi leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShypilovn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayLazebnyi75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shypilov2Lazebnyi8n = 10Lazebnyi took 8 of 10
S2Shypilov2Lazebnyi8n = 10Lazebnyi took 8 of 10
S3Shypilov5Lazebnyi5n = 10split evenly
S4Shypilov2Lazebnyi4n = 6Lazebnyi took 4 of 6
S5Shypilov2Lazebnyi1n = 3Shypilov took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricShypilovLazebnyiS − LBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match31.638.0−6.4per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShypilovLazebnyiBasisWin rate · lifetime372 / 818 vs 71 / 14545.5%49%372 / 818 vs 71 / 145Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LazebnyiShypilov 3.25/Lazebnyi 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
73.3%
Lazebnyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Shypilov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 06:35A. Shypilov49116138113R. Lazebnyi46611111172
LSep 19 · 12:05A. Shypilov164750R. Lazebnyi331111113
LSep 17 · 23:15A. Shypilov236980R. Lazebnyi331111113
LSep 16 · 20:15A. Shypilov4613811682R. Lazebnyi501111611113
LSep 15 · 21:45A. Shypilov27411571R. Lazebnyi4211911113
WSep 1 · 21:15A. Shypilov3741111113R. Lazebnyi31118751
LSep 1 · 24:15A. Shypilov205690R. Lazebnyi331111113
WAug 26 · 02:45A. Shypilov44921111113R. Lazebnyi4011116572
LAug 19 · 03:15A. Shypilov2165100R. Lazebnyi341111123
LAug 6 · 21:15A. Shypilov33881161R. Lazebnyi3811115113
A. Shypilov10
LSep 20 · 07:35N. Kovalchuk1.6111119113A. Shypilov2.20351141WSep 20 · 05:35O. Mitla1.837870A. Shypilov1.831111113LSep 19 · 18:05A. Shypilov1.73811991V. Boyko2.0011711113WSep 19 · 16:35A. Shypilov1.91111410793V. Vlasenko1.80712121162WSep 19 · 15:05A. Shypilov2.1081111123O. Napirko1.671197101WSep 19 · 13:35A. Shypilov2.1011911103N. Kovalchuk1.67711891LSep 19 · 12:05A. Shypilov2.754750R. Lazebnyi1.401111113LSep 18 · 02:15A. Shypilov1.83118111472O. Mitla1.837111312113LSep 18 · 24:45A. Shypilov1.9111911792V. Vlasenko1.80511911113LSep 17 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.636980R. Lazebnyi1.441111113
R. Lazebnyi10
LSep 20 · 04:35N. Kovalchuk1.61114118113R. Lazebnyi2.2071151162WSep 19 · 18:35V. Vlasenko2.25611681R. Lazebnyi1.5711811113LSep 19 · 17:35N. Kovalchuk2.6371111113R. Lazebnyi1.44114661LSep 19 · 16:05V. Boyko2.201111912103R. Lazebnyi1.6179111482WSep 19 · 14:05O. Napirko1.911211101082R. Lazebnyi1.801081212103WSep 19 · 12:05A. Shypilov2.754750R. Lazebnyi1.401111113LSep 18 · 03:15R. Lazebnyi1.675690O. Napirko2.101111113WSep 18 · 01:15O. Mitla2.757118101R. Lazebnyi1.4011611123WSep 17 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.636980R. Lazebnyi1.441111113LSep 17 · 22:15R. Lazebnyi2.20101111872N. Kovalchuk1.61126711113
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