TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Nazar Kovalchuk
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
113115911114––
Anton Shypilov
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:43 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeNazar Kovalchuk to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingNazar Kovalchuk above · Anton Shypilov below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 65 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Nazar Kovalchuk at 56.5%
65 points played in total.
H2H Nazar Kovalchuk 29–27 Anton Shypilov Anton Shypilov has won 27 of their 56 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:43What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kovalchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-27 in 56
Kovalchuk
Correct
gap of 2 in 56, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1690 vs Shypilov 1506
Kovalchuk
Correct
both rated, 184 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 100% vs Shypilov 80%
Kovalchuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 50% vs Shypilov 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk +5 · Shypilov +2
Kovalchuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Kovalchuk) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shypilov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 1.61 / Shypilov 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13161240
Kovalchuk1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite58% won 159 of 276
Up 2–0, closes it94% 59 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it73% 105 of 144
Shypilov2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 160 of 360
Down 0–1, comes back29% 57 of 195
Down 0–2, comes back13% 13 of 102
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk5wins
AwayShypilov5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk80%4 of 5
AwayShypilov80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk5Shypilov5n = 10split evenly
S2Kovalchuk8Shypilov2n = 10Kovalchuk took 8 of 10
S3Kovalchuk5Shypilov5n = 10split evenly
S4Kovalchuk1Shypilov5n = 6Shypilov took 5 of 6
S5Kovalchuk2Shypilov2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukShypilovK − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.437.2+3.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukShypilovBasisWin rate · lifetime388 / 749 vs 372 / 81851.8%45.5%388 / 749 vs 372 / 818Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukKovalchuk 1.61/Shypilov 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 20 · 07:35N. Kovalchuk4211119113A. Shypilov23351141
WSep 17 · 20:15N. Kovalchuk331111113A. Shypilov155550
WSep 16 · 21:45N. Kovalchuk51111487113A. Shypilov49812111172
LSep 15 · 23:15N. Kovalchuk33611971A. Shypilov3811511113
LAug 31 · 23:15N. Kovalchuk51121015862A. Shypilov5710121311113
LAug 26 · 21:15N. Kovalchuk48121111772A. Shypilov53148911113
LAug 25 · 21:15N. Kovalchuk226880A. Shypilov331111113
WAug 20 · 03:15N. Kovalchuk51713119113A. Shypilov43111161142
WAug 9 · 05:05N. Kovalchuk331111113A. Shypilov247980
N. Kovalchuk10
WSep 20 · 06:05N. Kovalchuk1.5771111113O. Napirko2.25111771WSep 20 · 04:35N. Kovalchuk1.61114118113R. Lazebnyi2.2071151162WSep 19 · 19:05O. Napirko2.2591191392N. Kovalchuk1.571151111113WSep 19 · 17:35N. Kovalchuk2.6371111113R. Lazebnyi1.44114661WSep 19 · 15:35V. Vlasenko2.251111861N. Kovalchuk1.5791311113LSep 19 · 13:35A. Shypilov2.1011911103N. Kovalchuk1.67711891LSep 19 · 12:35V. Boyko2.5012118113N. Kovalchuk1.501071191LSep 18 · 02:45V. Vlasenko2.50121135113N. Kovalchuk1.50107111182LSep 18 · 01:45O. Napirko2.5011311113N. Kovalchuk1.50511751LSep 18 · 24:15O. Mitla3.2511811113N. Kovalchuk1.33511871
A. Shypilov10
WSep 20 · 06:35A. Shypilov3.25116138113R. Lazebnyi1.33611111172WSep 20 · 05:35O. Mitla1.837870A. Shypilov1.831111113LSep 19 · 18:05A. Shypilov1.73811991V. Boyko2.0011711113WSep 19 · 16:35A. Shypilov1.91111410793V. Vlasenko1.80712121162WSep 19 · 15:05A. Shypilov2.1081111123O. Napirko1.671197101WSep 19 · 13:35A. Shypilov2.1011911103N. Kovalchuk1.67711891LSep 19 · 12:05A. Shypilov2.754750R. Lazebnyi1.401111113LSep 18 · 02:15A. Shypilov1.83118111472O. Mitla1.837111312113LSep 18 · 24:45A. Shypilov1.9111911792V. Vlasenko1.80511911113LSep 17 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.636980R. Lazebnyi1.441111113
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