TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155635
Played Sep 19Finished
Oleh Napirko
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9111159111311911
Nazar Kovalchuk
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:28 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeNazar Kovalchuk to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Napirko above · Nazar Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 100 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Nazar Kovalchuk at 59.3%
100 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Napirko 17–22 Nazar Kovalchuk Oleh Napirko has won 17 of their 39 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:28What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kovalchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-22 in 39
Kovalchuk
Correct
gap of 5 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Napirko 1616 vs Kovalchuk 1660
Kovalchuk
Correct
both rated, 44 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Napirko 40% vs Kovalchuk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Napirko 60% vs Kovalchuk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Napirko +1 · Kovalchuk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Kovalchuk) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNapirko 2.25 / Kovalchuk 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13155635
Napirko2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog38% won 53 of 139
Down 0–1, comes back16% 11 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 39
Kovalchuk1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite58% won 156 of 271
Up 2–0, closes it94% 59 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it73% 104 of 143
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNapirko6wins
AwayKovalchuk4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNapirko leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNapirko100%4 of 4
AwayKovalchuk66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Napirko4Kovalchuk6n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S2Napirko4Kovalchuk6n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S3Napirko6Kovalchuk4n = 10Napirko took 6 of 10
S4Napirko3Kovalchuk2n = 5Napirko took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricNapirkoKovalchukN − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.734.6+0.1per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNapirkoKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime423 / 852 vs 384 / 74549.7%51.5%423 / 852 vs 384 / 745Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukNapirko 2.25/Kovalchuk 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 01:45O. Napirko3611311113N. Kovalchuk28511751
LSep 15 · 22:15O. Napirko29561171N. Kovalchuk3711114113
WSep 6 · 09:35O. Napirko331111113N. Kovalchuk197660
WSep 5 · 06:35O. Napirko506111111113N. Kovalchuk4611813682
LSep 4 · 13:35O. Napirko311010110N. Kovalchuk371212133
LAug 29 · 11:05O. Napirko165740N. Kovalchuk331111113
LAug 28 · 15:35O. Napirko3398160N. Kovalchuk401111183
WAug 26 · 23:15O. Napirko341112113N. Kovalchuk2481060
WAug 24 · 23:15O. Napirko46116117113N. Kovalchuk4891181192
WAug 19 · 21:15O. Napirko3961111113N. Kovalchuk34118961
O. Napirko10
WSep 19 · 17:05V. Boyko2.383660O. Napirko1.531111113LSep 19 · 15:05A. Shypilov2.1081111123O. Napirko1.671197101LSep 19 · 14:05O. Napirko1.911211101082R. Lazebnyi1.801081212103LSep 19 · 13:05V. Vlasenko1.831111123O. Napirko1.8347100WSep 18 · 03:15R. Lazebnyi1.675690O. Napirko2.101111113WSep 18 · 01:45O. Napirko2.5011311113N. Kovalchuk1.50511751WSep 17 · 23:45V. Vlasenko1.8399111272O. Napirko1.831111910113LSep 17 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.001211116113O. Napirko1.7314251192WSep 17 · 20:45O. Mitla3.2567120O. Napirko1.331111143WSep 16 · 02:45V. Vlasenko1.8311511872O. Napirko1.83911511113
N. Kovalchuk10
WSep 19 · 17:35N. Kovalchuk1.6771111113R. Lazebnyi2.10114661WSep 19 · 15:35V. Vlasenko2.251111861N. Kovalchuk1.5791311113LSep 19 · 13:35A. Shypilov2.1011911103N. Kovalchuk1.67711891LSep 19 · 12:35V. Boyko2.5012118113N. Kovalchuk1.501071191LSep 18 · 02:45V. Vlasenko2.50121135113N. Kovalchuk1.50107111182LSep 18 · 01:45O. Napirko2.5011311113N. Kovalchuk1.50511751LSep 18 · 24:15O. Mitla3.2511811113N. Kovalchuk1.33511871WSep 17 · 22:15R. Lazebnyi2.20101111872N. Kovalchuk1.61126711113WSep 17 · 20:15A. Shypilov2.105550N. Kovalchuk1.671111113WSep 17 · 03:15S. Berezynskyi2.251110114132N. Kovalchuk1.57412811153
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