TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Andrii Kotyk
Home
1.33
At publish
Won last 9Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8111012211––––
Oleksii Mitla
Away
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:55 and never touched — 75.3% is still 75.3%
Graded at full timeAndrii Kotyk to win
75.3%
75.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAndrii Kotyk above · Oleksii Mitla below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 2-11
Point 54 set 3, 2-11 — our read held Andrii Kotyk at 75.3%
54 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Kotyk 12–5 Oleksii Mitla Oleksii Mitla has won 5 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:55What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Kotyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-5 in 17
Kotyk
Wrong
gap of 7 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kotyk 1667 vs Mitla 1520
Kotyk
Wrong
both rated, 147 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kotyk 100% vs Mitla 40%
Kotyk
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kotyk 90% vs Mitla 50%
Kotyk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kotyk +9 · Mitla -1
Kotyk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Kotyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kotyk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKotyk 1.33 / Mitla 3.25
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Kotyk)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13161537
Kotyk1.33
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 9
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite63% won 62 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it97% 31 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it85% 41 of 48
Mitla3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 124 of 318
Down 0–1, comes back25% 51 of 202
Down 0–2, comes back11% 13 of 119
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKotyk8wins
AwayMitla2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKotyk leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKotyk100%8 of 8
AwayMitlan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kotyk8Mitla2n = 10Kotyk took 8 of 10
S2Kotyk7Mitla3n = 10Kotyk took 7 of 10
S3Kotyk4Mitla5n = 9Mitla took 5 of 9
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKotykMitlaK − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match33.632.4+1.2per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKotykMitlaBasisWin rate · lifetime168 / 354 vs 345 / 79547.5%43.4%168 / 354 vs 345 / 795Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.638.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KotykKotyk 1.33/Mitla 3.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
74.9%
Kotyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Mitla won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 20 · 07:05A. Kotyk2081020O. Mitla341112113
WAug 30 · 04:35A. Kotyk351113113O. Mitla2791170
LAug 28 · 22:00A. Kotyk196670O. Mitla331111113
WAug 23 · 07:35A. Kotyk48111187113O. Mitla3992111162
WJul 26 · 07:35A. Kotyk47115119113O. Mitla4571181182
WJul 25 · 12:05A. Kotyk331111113O. Mitla248970
WJul 21 · 22:45A. Kotyk331111113O. Mitla259880
A. Kotyk10
WSep 20 · 05:05A. Kotyk1.531211113O. Napirko2.3810560WAug 30 · 10:35A. Kotyk1.5011114113V. Vlasenko2.50761181WAug 30 · 09:05A. Kotyk1.801111113O. Hura1.919750WAug 30 · 07:35A. Kotyk1.531113113Y. Shmyndra2.3851170WAug 30 · 06:05A. Kotyk1.401111143M. Smyrnov2.7516120WAug 30 · 04:35A. Kotyk1.401113113O. Mitla2.7591170WAug 29 · 18:05Y. Shmyndra2.108870A. Kotyk1.671111113WAug 29 · 17:05A. Kotyk1.4411119103O. Mitla2.63441181WAug 29 · 16:05A. Kotyk1.501111113M. Smyrnov2.505590LAug 29 · 14:35A. Kotyk1.679118101O. Hura2.1011711123
O. Mitla10
LSep 20 · 05:35O. Mitla1.837870A. Shypilov1.831111113WSep 18 · 02:15A. Shypilov1.83118111472O. Mitla1.837111312113LSep 18 · 01:15O. Mitla2.757118101R. Lazebnyi1.4011611123WSep 18 · 24:15O. Mitla3.2511811113N. Kovalchuk1.33511871LSep 17 · 22:45O. Mitla1.8011610101V. Vlasenko1.9191112123LSep 17 · 20:45O. Mitla3.2567120O. Napirko1.331111143WSep 17 · 02:15A. Shypilov1.91121181172O. Mitla1.80146119113WSep 17 · 01:15O. Mitla2.5011116133S. Berezynskyi1.509911111LAug 30 · 04:35A. Kotyk1.401113113O. Mitla2.7591170LAug 29 · 17:05A. Kotyk1.4411119103O. Mitla2.63441181
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